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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (59961)	2/8/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

I don't disagree with the Chevron CEO. Only the Shell management has my utter disdain. My "paradise" scenario could actually come true this year. It is simple: OPEC waffles till the meeting Crude stays in the $25-$30 range OPEC decides to extend another 6 months and re-evaluate Budgets still planned for collapse in oil prices Crude stays in the $25-$30 range Some of those HUNDREDS of NG guzzling power generators being built come online this summer Dog Days hit - NG goes to $3.50 Market wakes up and realizes what has been happening while industry "experts" were babbling well, you can guess the rest :o)

To: upanddown who wrote (59961)	2/8/2000 4:27:00 PM
From: Ken Ludwig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Here is more from the doctors of spin. The OPEC spokespersons are being VERY careful in what they say and the headline writers and reporters continue to spin the old "might", "could" relax prices but the only clear attributed statements are very far from talking about anything but small price balancing adjustments. I think $25 oil is now the bottom of the band that OPEC wants. FOCUS-Oil slips as OPEC output speculation grows (updates throughout, pvs SINGAPORE) LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased a little on Tuesday as speculation grew that producers may increase output when their pact to limit supplies expires at the end of March. Benchmark Brent crude was 17 cents down at $26.71 a barrel by 1730 GMT, still within 40 cents of nine-year highs hit last month. Prices have slipped from recent peaks as key OPEC and non-OPEC producers signalled that they could yet relax a year-long supply restraint deal when it runs out on March 31. OPEC oil ministers are to meet on March 27 to decide whether to extend cuts aimed at withdrawing 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from world markets. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Nasser Saud al-Sabah, a well-known supporter of higher prices, said on Tuesday he expected OPEC to prolong the curbs. ``As far as we are concerned it is a foregone conclusion ... there will be no increase,' he said. But a senior oil official from an OPEC country was quoted by the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) on Monday as saying that a small output increase was possible in April. And a Gulf source familiar with Saudi Arabian oil policy said on Sunday that producers were concerned to avoid any supply shortage. Prices have soared as 10 months of drastic OPEC export curbs has reduced U.S. crude inventories to their lowest in over a decade. Brent has averaged $19.50 in the 12 months to date, above a 1999 average of $18.03 and sharply above $13.34 in 1998. Analysts warn that by pushing prices above $25 for too long OPEC will not only lose market share to higher cost rival non-OPEC producers but also choke off global demand growth. Outgoing International Monetary Fund Managing Director Michel Camdessus said on Tuesday that rising world oil prices have a placed a ``question mark' on the world economic outlook. There is also growing concern in consuming countries that stockpiles of spare oil will be worn perilously low if producers keep holding back so much supply after March. U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson will meet with Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi on February 25-26. Producers have so far shown few signs of allowing high oil prices to tempt them into cheating on their production cut promises. A Reuters survey found compliance by the 10 OPEC members that participate in supply restrictions slipped just a notch to 73 percent in January from a December estimate of 74 percent. Prices in dollars per barrel: Feb 8 Feb 7 (1730 GMT) (close) IPE March Brent 26.71 26.88 NYMEX March light crude 28.38 28.45

To: upanddown who wrote (59961)	2/8/2000 4:30:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

<Chevron continues to base its long-term planning on oil closer to $18 a barrel> That is exactly the point; they will spend Cap Ex $ based upon $18 Oil - not $25. So be in the stocks who actually will reap the benefits of the actual commodity prices and the normalized activity in the patch - not those who depend on massive cap ex spending increases: ie: drillers with capacity here and E&P's - stay out of subsectors that will require huge cap ex commitments from Big Oil in the nearterm - because they are not unleashing those $ - they are still in a cost cutting & cash register ringing mode. People here are making the mistake of playing commodity prices - not playing the reactions that those with the money who own these stocks... If the price of Oil REALLY meant diddly squat - APA would be $60 and FGH would be $40 again... the flow of money is out of the sector prior to the OPEC meeting - it will continue, institutions are playing it safe, they are not going to miss anything outrunning them - because ala~ XTO EOG NBL etc. Nothing can move without THEM putting THEIR money to work here. THEY control the tape - dont fight them, step aside; let them bring shareprices down then buy prior to the opec meeting.