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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Meridian who wrote (59973)	2/8/2000 6:10:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gambler A typical daily crude run is 14 - 15MMB. For week ended 1/28 it was 14.1, last week not yet posted. The daily run times 7 days creates a weekly thruput usually close to 100 MMB so I am assuming each 1% change in utilization rate changes the weekly thruput by approx 1 MMB. As Rory said, it is a two-edged sword. A utilization decrease should create a crude build and a product draw. A utilization increase should create a crude draw and a product build. That assumes all things are equal but they never are. Last week we imported 9-10MMB more crude than the prior week and 6-7MMB less products than the previous week. Gas demand was down and HO demand was up, typical in harsh weather. It is hard to make any sense of utilization changes because of all the other variables. Then you throw in the fact that all these numbers we accept as truth are nothing more than guesstimates within maybe a 5% range. Now the traders and analysts tomorrow glance at them and place their bets. It always amazes me that the multi-trillion-dollar worldwide energy business rises or falls on such shaky statistics. John