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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dclapp who wrote (39467)	2/9/2000 12:27:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

Doug, you hope for too much. of course everybody will try to leave the party at once...remember, in the current climate, fund managers are afraid of not being fully invested, not of having perhaps paid too much for their stocks. what's-his-name who used to be the manager of the Magellan fund allocated a defensive 20% of the fund's assets to bonds in '96 i believe, and got fired for it. the lesson was: prudence and caution are punished. people are now paying 30 times revenues for CSCO...that requires a lot of faith at current interest rates. actually it would require a lot of faith even at much lower interest rates. faith and confidence and liquidity...take one away and the rush for the exit is on. at that point it will be discovered that it is NOT possible for everybody to sell right at the top...<g> regards, hb