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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James A. Venooker who wrote (13405)	2/9/2000 7:06:00 AM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Sounds like you just spent the night at Tommy Bahama's. Things should look clearer in the morning.

To: James A. Venooker who wrote (13405)	2/9/2000 7:27:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

James, I hope that you are correct. I like your patient approach. It is difficult to maintain that approach in a market where gains of 30-100% are not uncommon in periods of 1-6 months. I have taken a position in AVNX, though the price is steep, primarily due to the belief that the market that they are in will afford them a massive premium. If LU was to purchase the company for 11-13 billion or more, that would not be prudent. If the pooling methods of accounting are disallowed, a purchase of that magnitude would create an anchor on earnings. All in my opinion. Brian

To: James A. Venooker who wrote (13405)	2/9/2000 9:57:00 PM
From: jack bittner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

i'm glad to read what you say, because i've taken on a larger position in lu at 57 and 55, than i've ever had. but i'm doing it just on the basis of buried value resulting from the big drop. but are you writing this on the basis of research of any sort? something i confess i have not. for example, do you know whether lu is now making OC-192 installations for anyone yet? if so, how much and for whom? some might say, "too soon. the problem came up just a couple of weeks ago." not so. lu's known about this lack for two years. do they have a complete OC-192 network product available for sale? one can say that's only a small part of their business. true, but it's at the cutting edge. also i heard asnd-ers (engineers not stockholders)are bailing out, frustrated by the bureacracy and the unsatisfactory compensation models. when one buys an ortl or an asnd, one is buying brains, if they walk you've blown billions. why did ortl fall the day of the announcement - and before lu dropped. did people decide the assets would wind up walking? me, i'm in on faith that all that's bottled up at bell labs will burst out beyond the bonds of the bureaucrats at the top, but you seem really certain. so i thought you might have something concrete about revenues and contracts. i have seen all the press releases about lab products. on that subject, i was a bit put off by the all-optical router that turns out to be a crossover product not entirely optical, which if joined with other components COULD be called a router, but still not all optical. that kind of fudging goes along with back-loading quarterly revenues. on the good side are lu's links with the defense department, e.g. the $300 million the Gov is giving lu, princeton u. and bell atlantic to develop a terabit network, and AirOptic that will useful in Gulf wars. i do know that lu is one of only 4 firms that are major factors in actually building the networks. that they are the world leaders in 7 of 9 communication installation spaces (wireless etc) so they WILL get their share. but do you have any new data that will comfort us while we wait until mr mcginn awakens? you're right that lu has the $$$ and the brains, but it's roth and chambers who have the balls.