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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (20165)	2/9/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: Joe Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Just running my numbers through Turbo Tax today. I owe a modest amount to the government thanks to the success I have had thanks to this thread. It got me to thinking. A lot of people are going to owe the government due to their realized gains. Noticed in the paper that there has been record turnover in stocks and record sales by insiders. So come April, there is going to a record bill to pay. I see this as short-term bearish in April, but long-term very bullish. Everyone waits till the last minute to do their taxes. Come April, they are going to find out that they have a bill to pay Uncle Sam. Those that don't pay quarterly will find that they even may owe interest. In effect, they have been using Uncle Sam as a margin account and didn't even know it. If they have little cash on hand, they will have to sell equities or raise more money from their margin accounts. Either way this will put pressure on the markets, particlarly high-fliers. I think that many of us track our finances in something like Quicken. I suggest that you take on a practice that I have used which is as follows. I creates an account in Quicken called Cpaital Gains taxes. Whenever I sell stock at a gain, I make a cash transfer from my Portfolio account to the Capital gains tax account in the amount of 1/3 of my gain. I treat losses the reverse way. That way I know more or less how much I owe Uncle Sam for the transaction, no surprises, and also I know how I am really doing with my investing including the tax effects. Now, the long-term bullish effect. The government is very slow-moving in its forecasts. I believe that the surplus will greatly outpace estimates because of our realized gains. This threads tax-bite alone will go a long way to paying of the national debt. The government, slow-witted as it is, has probably not put all of this effect into its forecasts. It knows what it knows from W-2 info and past data. But, I am guessing that they do little to add in new trends. So, when they get this influx of the money, what is that going to do to the long bond? There will be much less government debt refinancing on the market, making for much less bond offerings, bringing down rates on all debt offerings. This is going to be really great news for any corporations as well as anyone looking for a mortgage. We have not yet begun to get the payoff for our fiscal responsibility!!!!