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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (77807)	2/9/2000 1:38:00 PM
From: Night Writer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

El, That could be, I'm more focused on the second half then the first quarter. NW

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (77807)	2/9/2000 1:55:00 PM
From: Andreas	Respond to of 97611

Elwood; IMHO, the momentum guys will want to catch the quarterly wave which should begin around first to second week of March. This wave is purely speculative and is based on the assumption that CPQ is progressing toward a successful turnaround. They really don't care what the quarterly results are - only that the stock runs up in anticipation allowing them to bail out at or near earnings. This run about - based on recent examples, should be good for about three or four dollars a share. Assuming a base of 27, then I think we will hit 30 -31. This is a far cry from the 35. Now, if earnings are good, sales are good and MC executes perfectly then the momentum can continue after earnings release date. If there is anyting other than a A++++ in terms of execution then the stock will give up most if not all of the 3 or 4 point run-up. This may be a great scenario for day-traders and momentum players but it is thoroughly boring and financially disasterous for the likes of you and I and all the other dedicated, loyal longs on this thread. I've been and out of this stock several times and unfortunately this quarter I repeated a mistake I've made countless times before. I get sucked in by the short-term run-up prior to earnings naively thinking "this time they'll get it right and this stock will take off" - NOT! I have absolutely got to learn to take the short-term money and run and then get back in later when the stock tanks - as it inevitably does after earnings release.