To: John Pitera who wrote (45 ) 2/9/2000 3:28:00 PM From: John Pitera Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
Curve Inversion at New Depths as Only 30 Yr falls in yield, 2 year notes at highest Yield in 5 Years. By Elizabeth Roy Senior Writer 2/9/00 11:30 AM ET The Treasury market is mixed ahead of this afternoon's auction of new 10-year notes. With the midday collapse in stock prices, the 10-year note (which is quickly displacing the 30-year bond as the Treasury benchmark) has shaken off its morning languor. It was lately up 6/32 at 95 28/32, cutting its yield 2.8 basis points to 6.590%. But the two-year note is down 2/32, lifting its yield to 6.700%, the highest level in going on five years. The coincidence of the stock selloff and the bond rally suggests that investors are shifting funds from one market to the other. Meanwhile, the madcap 30-year bond, which has rocketed in value relative to its shorter-maturity counterparts because of government plans to reduce the supply of long-dated issues, though well off its highs, was up 13/32 at 98 31/32, cutting its yield 3.1 basis points to 6.201%. The 30-year yield remains above its closing low of the year, 6.121%, reached last Thursday. Still, the mixed performance is causing further inversion of the Treasury yield curve. The 30-year bond's yield is 49.9 basis points below the two-year note's, vs. 45.7 yesterday. Last Friday the curve was inverted by 50.1 basis points at the end of the day, although it inverted by as much as 55.4 basis point intraday on Thursday. "It's more of the same -- the curve's inverting," said Avram Altaras, Treasury market strategist at Bear Stearns. "Clearly some people may have to buy the long end because there's a short squeeze maybe still. Or else they're worried that there's not going to be enough bonds and so they have to get it." More the former than the latter, is the view at Wrightson Associates, whose weekly newsletter The Money Market Observer says in its latest edition: "Institutions with a structural investment need for long-term bonds already enjoy a broader range of alternatives in the agency and corporate market than in the past, and their choices will multiply further if the inversion becomes any more pronounced. Most investors who are willing to accept the interest rate risk of a 30-year bond can cope with the credit risk of an agency bond or a swaps position." Today's auction is the second of three segments of the so-called quarterly refunding, in which the Treasury Department sells new intermediate-term notes and long-term bonds. Yesterday, it auctioned new five-year notes. Tomorrow, it will sell new 30-year bonds. The reception an auction gets (results are announced at around 1:30 p.m. EST) often sets the tone in the Treasury market. The quality of the reception is measured by the bid-to-cover ratio it produces. The bid-to-cover ratio compares the volume of securities dealers bid for to the amount for sale. Higher is better. The last five 10-year note auctions produced an average bid-to-cover ratio of 1.95. At the Chicago Board of Trade, the March Treasury futures contract opened up 3/32 at 8:30 a.m. EST and was lately up 5/32 at 94 22/32. Economic Indicators There are no major economic releases today. The highlight of the next few days is the January retail sales report, due out Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST. The weekly Mortgage Applications Survey detected increases in both refinancing and new mortgage activity. The Refinancing Index rose to 436.7 from 384.4, while the Purchase Index rose to 307.1 from 292.6. Currency and Commodities The dollar was weaker against the yen and the euro. It was lately worth 109.05 yen, down from 109.51 yesterday. The euro was lately worth $0.9920, up from $0.9854 yesterday. Crude oil for March delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange was stronger, at $28.50 a barrel, up from $28.02 yesterday. The Bridge Commodity Research Bureau Index was higher, at 212.00, up from 210.38 yesterday. Gold for April delivery at the Comex was rallying sharply again, lately $308.9 an ounce, vs. $301.70 yesterday.