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To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (10012)2/9/2000 7:07:00 PM
From: Rocket Scientist  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
 
"ICO embraces McCaw's new Net strategy"

Very interesting article from Communications Week International

totaltele.com

Says ICO is expected to shift emphasis toward data from voice and discusses other aspects of McCaw/ICO/Hughes negotiations.

Article also has some bad news, and repeats some (IMO) baseles rumors:

News: Quotes KPMG as saying total MSS market by 2005 is expected to be 1-2B$. (hmmmm, G* alone is supposed to be making around 4B$ by then)

Rumors: Quotes the ubiquitous Roger Rusch "survey" indicating "only 2000-3000 G* phones had been sold by mid-January" (this would be pretty good, actually, imo, especially if his survey was limited to N.America, as I suspect)

Makes the completely baseless statement that the company expected 50K per month subscriber rate, which apparently comes from dividing 600K end of year subscribers by 12. Considering the phased rollout of GWs, this is an absurd assumption. If we can sell 2-3K phones per GW per month, I'd think that was pretty damn good, and not inconsistent with 600K by end of year, if they'd get the GWs up on time (for a change)



To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (10012)2/9/2000 7:54:00 PM
From: leo_bloom  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
 
R.S., thanks for the update on all the gateways out there. Regarding the veil of secrecy, I think we all know the answer: Mr. Schwartz has been storing up all his ammunition for one enormous blowout announcement that will vindicate the whole operation and shock the disbelievers. ... Or maybe it's just not ready to fly, yet. Looks like the gradual rollout will continue bit by bit, slowly building momentum (we hope) till it's snowballing late in the 2nd quarter. It's hard to imagine being a long-term holder and totally bailing out at this point. Too much risk of having to kick oneself for missing a jump like we saw in late December. Maybe the secretiveness you've cited has a certain psychological force that keeps shareholders hanging on. If we knew everything, maybe we'd bail out for a few weeks, which wouldn't help the already struggling stock price. ... Yet I keep thinking about the institutional buyers of the secondary. Would they be less informed than I am about what's going to be happening in the next few months? If not, doesn't that, too, make it risky to bail out right now? Just random musings.

leo