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Strategies & Market Trends : TIMING INDEX MUTUAL FUNDS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (103)	2/10/2000 8:49:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 428

Hi Heinz, Yesterday qualifies for DAY-1 in the SPX, but not for the DOW and NAZ. With the DOW in the strongly OVERSOLD region(CLASS 2 BUY SIGNAL), a bounce/rebound could occur as soon as today. This could skew the 3-DAY PATTERN for the SPX. I have never before received a 3-DAY PATTERN on a major index while another major index has a CLASS SIGNAL in the opposite direction, as I do now. It quite common to have the 3-DAY pattern for all 3 major indicies(DOW/SPX/NAZ) at the same time - this type of divergence has never before occured since I have been watching. Keep in mind that DAY-2 should be flat to slightly up to qualfy for one of the 3-DAY patterns. I mention this since many believe that it is bullish that the day after a strong selloff is flat; however on a statistical basis that is not the case if it is part of a 3-DAY PATTERN. Heres the criteria/schedule for a 3-DAY pattern: 1) CLASS SELL SIGNAL must go off first 2) DAY 1 = The 1st strong down day after the CLASS SELL SIGNAL 3) DAY 2 = FLAT to slightly UP 4) DAY 3 = Strong down day similar to DAY-1 If DAY 2 is DOWN hard, then DAY 3 is flat or down So on a statistical basis, it may not be that wise to be overly bullish if the day after a hard selling day is flat or slightly up. However, as mentioned above Im not that confident that this 3-DAY will work in light of the huge divergence. seeya