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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (39559)	2/9/2000 9:18:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim: Oil the Commodity and Oil Stocks are two different ball games. However, you're right...why not another mania? I suspect it is not glamorous (hi-tech or bio-tech) enough... Regards, LG

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (39559)	2/9/2000 9:26:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Hiam The way that I figure it, this whole market has been one long series "short x to go long y." More and more "y" has been tech stuff (down to the last three or four now). "x" has grown larger and larger and covers almost all of the CRB, bonds, foreign currencies, utilities and almost anything else that doesn't seem to move very fast. Bond short bandits hit again mid day to try to keep techs up. Then Summers dropped the bomb after the bell. So then .. to pull the market back up, the xy bandits will have to slam bonds and the XAU out the gate in the AM. They'll just have to keep shorting and shorting and shorting .. just to break even .. if they're lucky. If they decide to cover any of their prior shorts they may have to sell off stocks to cover losses .. I get this picture of the NDX dropping lock down for the day .. over and over and over again.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (39559)	2/9/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, we have discussed this on the Clown thread today...i think you're right, one of the reasons the oil cos are being sold is that money is needed to chase the ever higher priced tech stocks. the oil co's have simply become part of the collapsing a/d line (note though that the XOI has hit a support line today). another possible interpretation (a bit more arcane) is that the oil cos are reacting to the inverted yield curve, i.e. that the classic interpretation of the curve inversion as a predictor of an economic slowdown or even a recession is applicable, and the oil stocks are already beginning to discount the expectation of a decrease in future demand for oil. another possibility may be uncertainty over OPEC's March meeting. there's lots of talk that OPEC may decide to increase production quotas (i don't think so btw.). still, the whole thing is rather puzzling and can not really be explained that way...after all, why isn't crude itself discounting this expectation? conclusion: most likely a) applies. a sign that liquidity in the market is harder and harder to come by. regards, hb

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (39559)	2/10/2000 1:10:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re: Is there any explanation to it?? The explanation is that we have been in a bear market since April 1998, and only the repeated doubling of YHOO and INTC has masked this fact. Most stocks in most industries, even the quality stocks, are below their 1998 or 1999 highs. I've been sniffing around for value stocks, and there is an immense amount of frustration and despair among stockholders. They keep saying, "I don't understand it, the company is well-run, makes higher profits every quarter, the balance sheet looks good, and the stock keeps going down." I wasn't around then, but, from what I've read, that was what it was like in 1973-1974.