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To: upanddown who wrote (60058)	2/10/2000 12:43:00 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 95453

John, >> With increased usage expected and rapid depletion not being replaced by new production? Wall St may not have noticed, this thread doesn't seem to have noticed but I think the gas producers noticed. << I think everyone on this thread and Wall Street is quite aware of these figures and facts. Don't fool yourself. Our lack of movement has very little to do with facts imho.

To: upanddown who wrote (60058)	2/10/2000 5:28:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John T. Clarke, About that late La Nina typical winter: file:///A\|/DrDew020700.htm WHY "BLOCKING PATTERNS" PRODUCE WEATHER EXTREMES Written February 7, 2000 By Joe D'Aleo Chief WSI/INTELLICAST Meteorologist Will we see major blocking events in late February and late March? Most of the weather features we see on the weather map move on average several hundred miles in a day. They are usually pushed and steered by the upper level winds at the "jet stream" level. These jet stream winds are constantly changing, which is why forecasting is so challenging. We use computer models to help us decide how the upper level winds might change and what effect this might have on surface weather. At times, the upper level wind flow is very flat, blowing mostly west to east. This brings our most tranquil weather. Sometimes though the upper level wind flow gets very wavy with a snakelike jet stream that travels first far to the north and then far to the south and so on. This produces the greatest temperature extremes and the biggest storms. The weather you get depends on where you are relative to the waves and associated features. Sometimes when the flow is highly wavy, features can "cut-off" from the general flow. These features tend to be very slow moving and can cause weather to persist for many days. These cut-off highs or lows often serve as "blocking" weather features. Blocking weather features as the name implies, act to block (or deflect) other transitory weather features. They are represented on the weather maps by large stationary or slowly moving high and low pressure systems. Like a rock in a stream or a car approaching a major traffic jam, approaching weather systems must either slow down or detour around the blocks. Blocking highs are often found at very high latitudes (50N, 60N or higher). These blocking highs develop often as a strong storm or a series of storms carry and pile up warm air far to the north. High pressure at the surface near these blocks is also favored by the radiational cooling that occurs at the surface under clear skies in high pressure in the long high latitude winter nights. This cools the low-level air, and the increased density results in increased surface pressure. This mass of high pressure acts as a rock in a stream, forcing systems around it. Storms along with some of the cold air may be forced unusually far to the south around the blocking high. They too may "cut-off" as a low-pressure center both at the surface and aloft. This further acts to block the advance of weather features from the west. The North Atlantic and North Pacific are locations where blocking highs are most common and have the greatest effect on our weather. This is true because the strongest storms are most common over the high latitude oceans and they can help build these blocks. When blocks form near the West Coast of North America, they block mild Pacific air and help feed cold arctic air south. The coldest winter weather occurs in these situations for the nation. The late January weather pattern that brought very cold temperatures and snow to the big cities of the east was the result of one of these blocking patterns in the North Atlantic. When they develop here, these blocks bottle up the cold air over North America. The cold air expands to the south. The storm track is likewise depressed south which explains why places like Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina and Washington, D.C. got in on the winter fun in late January. There are some indications that north Atlantic blocking could happen later this month and again in the last half of March. Why? Well we have seen some blocking developing during the middle of every month since September -- roughly a 30-day cycle. Blocks have an average lifetime of a week or two. They eventually weaken and get absorbed back into the flow. Frequently high latitude blocks move west before they are re-absorbed. In fact, the late January blocking high has been ambling westward through Canada over the last week and models suggest it may get reabsorbed near the west coast just as the new one begins to form in the North Atlantic in mid-February. By the way, blocks form in summer too. Some are associated with heat waves and are called heat ridges. These blocks help aggravate the drought by deflecting potential rainmakers around them, keeping the dry areas dry. While some areas are shortchanged, the areas immediately surrounding these heat ridges often get too much rain. This is in part because the disturbances with their moisture and associated rainfall is focused there, and in part, because the thunderstorms in these disturbances feed off the heat energy drawn out of the heat ridge. ¸ 2000 WSI Corporation, part of Litton Industries. All rights reserved. Home \| About \| Contact \| Help \| Legal The NAO, which has been strongly positive the last week or so, took a turn for the better last 24 hours. While still very positive, could be heading toward negative. Had a few false starts before, we will see. Best Regards, Roebear

To: upanddown who wrote (60058)	2/10/2000 8:32:00 AM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

AGA data showing upcoming draws and total working gas in storage comparasions with 1999. 1999 2000 Jan.22 -92B / 2117B Jan. 21 -195B / 2017B Jan.29 -78B / 2039B Jan. 28 -242B / 1775B Feb. 5 -93B / 1946B Feb. 4 -213B / 1562B Feb.12 -59B / 1885B Feb. 11 ? Feb.19 -97B / 1788B Feb. 18 ? Feb.26 -128B / 1660B Feb. 25 ?

To: upanddown who wrote (60058)	2/10/2000 9:18:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

I have noticed the gas issue, which has been predicted for the last year. Also noticed that East Texas Transmission has shut off many interruptible producers from access to it's pipelines sourced in Texas for the week. Their pipes are a major trunk to the Northeast and are at capacity. Also many uninterruptible customers of various gas companies have been told to switch off as well. It's not just supply that's not enough. It's also delivery capability. Much more NG would have been used if allowed. The NG analysts called this major trend right. If the weather stays cold there will be some real problems.