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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marquis103 who wrote (77866)	2/10/2000 11:02:00 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 97611

Dear Russ and all: Well, for myself, I only have a relatively small position and keep it around to read the posts. haha. I think this is among the most active threads on SI. Considering the stock does nothing for us its amazing isnt it? Incidentally, I have a small gain in the stock even now. Honestly, I do believe that a company with all the assets possessed by CPQ will eventually find its way and go back to previous highs, only question in my mind is when. JDN

To: marquis103 who wrote (77866)	2/10/2000 11:04:00 AM
From: Suma	Respond to of 97611

I ditto everything you say. Have held for three years now and at a $35.50 entry point averaging down. It is one big RED deficit on my portfolio chart. Red dog....... Just ventilating to let you know there are others of us out there...lurkers of a sort who share your disappointment. Suma

To: marquis103 who wrote (77866)	2/10/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: Andreas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

To Russ; I have access to a manager at a well known brokerage firm. We talk probably twice a week and occassionally have lunch or dinner together. And as you can well imagine his firm is bullish on cpq and I have challenged him on the recent decline. In a nutshell, he says hindsight is always 20-20. "We underestimated the depth of the momentum investors in cpq". Although, there is a decidedly upbeat feel about cpq he says cpq is plagued by lack of momentum (or too much momentum depending on your point of view) and doubt. He said cpq is purely a "turnaround play" with considerable risk. However, if MC can show substantially better numbers (something MC is unproven on) the rewards are likewise to be substantial. He says there is a dearth of info. coming out of cpq and therefore it is extremely difficult to get a feel for what progress is being made. He also made the point that Victor and others have noted - that MC is slow in cutting expenses. This has left the impression, right or wrong, that MC is a softee and incapable of making the difficult decisions. Head count should have been down more by this point in time and that has been a major disappointment to analysts and fund managers. Now the good news. He said that in his 35+ years experience stories such as cpq's are not uncommon and absent the good news that was expected these stocks usually give up 50% of their gains. He said, "the story that came from cpq during the analysts meeting after earnings release was not that compelling - it was so-so and therefore a 50% retrenchment is not that unusual. Since cpq was at 18.50 and then rose to 33 it is not that unusual to see cpq drop to 25 3/4 [33-((33-18.50)/2)] give or take another 10%. Well, we're pretty darn close to that aren't we? He also said - "now is not the time to bail-out. Too much damage has already been done. The up-side now is decidedly better than when it was 33, just three weeks ago." The mistake, was not bailing immediately after the ho-hum analysts meeting, he said. In conclusion, he said, "sit tight and re-evaluate after next quarter's analyst meeting - and if you don't have the stomach for that then bail out after the run up in late march." There you have one guy's perspective after 35+ years in the industry. Place whatever value you want on it.