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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (40567)	2/10/2000 12:19:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom, an excellent point that you make about momentum not turning on a dime. We typically see higher highs with greater moment divergences. John Roque had some nice observations about this. --A Short History of Blowout Markets Previous Record Holders Index Date Percentage above 200-day moving average Nasdaq Dec. 29, 1999 42.7% Dow Jones Industrials Nov. 28, 1928 31.86% Dow Jones Industrials March 27, 1986 25.24% Nikkei 225 (Japan) April 22, 1987 27.05% IBEX 35 (Spain -- a G7-type market) April 6, 1998 44.93% (the largest on a percentage basis, but not at a 4+ standard deviation) -- he points out that the only spain's top was pretty close to it;s greatest % distance above the 200 dma. We do see occasions where we have significant tops with no momentum divergences, such as the Nasd top of July 20th 1998. One had to look at the spx and djia as well as cycle considerations to discern that turning point. One Key point is that the Nasd makes it's price high after the broader averages in maturing bull markets. I have a chart that demonstrates this... I can look for it. JOhn