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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (36953)	2/10/2000 1:43:00 PM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

John, When Micron announces 144 Mbit RDRAM production this quarter and 288 MBit samples in 2Q plus the reality of Sony PSII shipping, things are starting to look way, way up for RMBS. Another quick point. Tate said that their goal for the die size penalty in 2001 was 10% (versus 20% today). I asked Gary H. whether the Toshiba redesign of the SDRAM core that let's them get the RDRAM die size penalty down to 10% was extendable to the other DRAM manufacturers. He said that if it's a redesign of the core, it's probably proprietary and wouldn't be immediately available to the other manufacturers. But if it can be done once, it can be done 6 more times. The reduction in die size penalty mostly comes from moving to 256Mb parts where the core grows in size, but the RDRAM part of the chip doesn't. Dave p.s. Tate estimated that the manufacturing penalty for RDRAM today is 40% (it costs 40% more to make). Most of that (according to his slides) is in the packaging and they expect that to go to virtually zero next year. The 40% cost delta today is not related to the price delta we see today because the few vendors currently in the market are using the opportunity to take some extra profits (my words, not his). Once competition really starts up, we should see the prices decline to match more closely to the 40% number (his words, not mine).