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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (1972)	2/20/2000 9:16:00 PM
From: Gus	Respond to of 1998

Interesting excerpts from a recent speech by TXN's George Barber regarding DSPs and Broadband: Here's a case in point: The original DSL reference design that Amati submitted to Bellcore five or six years ago. It was used to set the international standard for DSL even though it was anything but an elegant solution. Amati's first generation concept involved multiple circuit boards and hundreds of different chips. Fast forward to today, and here's what you find. Thanks to relentless improvements in process technology in lithography techniques in power dissipation and in available MIPS we can now provide that same broadband functionality in a modem that's no larger than a credit card..... ....Today's central office solution requires a DSLAM that measures 7 feet tall by 2 feet wide by a foot deep and it aggregates a couple hundred broadband lines. But TI has already demonstrated a solution that can do four modems on a single DSP and soon, we'll double that to eight modems per DSP. As this progress continues at the silicon level, it means you'll soon be able to do as much aggregating on a single card as it would take a whole roomful of equipment to do today. You're going to be getting the same kind of impact in the local loop, as well. We're now working on a silicon solution that would put a binder group on a chip. Soon, you'll be able to terminate 32 high speed internet access lines on a single transceiver, using less than one square inch per modem not to mention, a power requirement of less than one watt per modem. It took generations of development to get POTS technology to that point on the circuit-switched network. But by aggressively pushing the envelope on silicon, we're starting to make the broadband access revolution practical today..... .......I?m not really a betting man....but I?d be willing to wager that you?re looking at something bigger than a 50- or 60-million unit market here. ti.com For ease of reference: Dataquest estimates that 3 million CO (Central Office) and 2 million CPE (Customer Premises) xDSL lines were sold in 1999. ORCT's market share below: CO ADSL - 15% xDSL - 11% CPE ADSL - 23% xDSL - 19% Relative valuation at this early stage of the xDSL market: RBOC -- AWRE, TUTS, CMTN, ORCT CLEC -- COVD, NPNT, NTPA, RTHM