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To: Charlie Smith who wrote (50497)2/10/2000 3:23:00 PM
From: JB  Respond to of 53903
 
Charlie, it could be because this time it appears it is only DRAM pricing that is effected..The rest of the industry is still very tight with firming prices and longer lead times..Perhaps a distinction has finally been made that the entire semi industry does not revolve around dram products. JMO Jack



To: Charlie Smith who wrote (50497)2/10/2000 4:10:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
--Charlie
You ask a lot of interesting questions.
First, the SOX is made up of all sorts of chip makers--dram, processors, analog chips--some of which are doing quite well on the pricing front.

Second, I once took a year's worth of dram prices and a year's worth of MU's closing prices and compared them. There is a correlation but it's the other way around, MU leads dram prices. There are so many people in the dram business who have a reasonably strong sense of the market that they buy MU before prices actually rise for dram, IMO. Also, this is the slowest quarter of the year for dram and people anticipate that prices will rise later in the year due to capacity shortage. My point with the chart is that, if this price erosion continues, I suspect MU will miss it's numbers this quarter but do fine later in the year.

Best
--Steve



To: Charlie Smith who wrote (50497)2/10/2000 10:03:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Charlie, possibly because despite the declining trend, it is still twice as high as at the bottom. I also think that few lunatic forecasters are suggesting that the chip sector is going to be close to 10% of GDP in three years (some people quote $600 billions in 2002) (well, not really 10% since the number is world shipments, but still, a number a little too high even if we assume US consumption at about 50% of that total or so).

Zeev