To: Osaka Joe who wrote (13208 ) 2/10/2000 9:50:00 PM From: Raymond James Norris Respond to of 14266
Joe,In "Trading for a Living", Alexander Elder claims that the MACD-Histogram is "one of the best tools available to a market technician". I've met Dr. Alexander and speak with him over email every few weeks. I've read his book cover to cover.Elder says divergences between stock price and MACD-Histogram "give some of the most powerful messages in technical analysis... and identify strength at market bottoms. They give buy signals when most traders feel fearful about a breakdown to a new low!" This is entirely true. I don't dispute it.I have been applying it to many beaten-down stocks recently and noticed a divergence between THQI's lows and the MACD-Histogram's lows. While the stock price in February is lower than in December, the Histogram is higher. Joe, you should also know that Dr. Elder emphasizes how important it is to look at the long term when doing evaluations. That's the whole purposes of the triple trading system described towards the end of the book. You're looking at daily MACD, not weekly MACD, which overrides the daily signals. Take a look at weekly Macd and you see something very different. In fact, I didn't even notice this. Weekly MACD Histogram is at the lowest point it has ever been in the past 10 years . I can't believe that. The situation might be worse than I had earlier thought. This is signaling tremendous weakness. On a monthly MACD, which is for really long term trades, the MACD is about to give a sell signal - its first since 1994. Yes, the break of the five-year trend line indicates that bears are stronger than bulls, but some Technical Analysts might call that condition "oversold". Oversold only refers to non-trending markets. THQI is trending. Conservatively Yours, Raymond J. Norris