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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (60121)	2/10/2000 8:07:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I am getting mixed signals from the analysts. On one hand they are saying that OS is going to benefit because producer capital spending always goes up dramatically when prices are sustained at high levels. These are the folks like SSB. Then there are those who say that the producers are going to get punished by the market if they don't get their balance sheets cleaned up and make their companies provide a good return on investment. The producers seem to be listening to these folks since the stock prices suggest that THESE people are the ones with the investment dollars. This could explain the very conservative approach of the producers to high energy prices. I believe things are going to be a lot different this time around. There is LOTS of 3-D seismic data out there, and it is of high quality relative to prior boom-bust cycles. I believe a LOT fewer wells are going to be drilled this time around, with a lot fewer dry holes. Also think a lot more of those wells are going to be drilled in deep water and ultra deep water. If I am right, companies like FLC are going to have trouble marketing all of those shallow water jack-up rigs. Perhaps Big Dog would care to comment on this? In summary, it appears that looking to past cycles to predict this cycle may not be appropriate.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (60121)	2/10/2000 9:26:00 PM
From: William JH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George, Everyone, and I mean everyone who comments on oil, 'knows' that it will be lower in just a few more weeks/months. Isn't this the same group who didn't think it could get above $18, then $20, then $25 and etc? I don't know where it's going, but neither does anyone else.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (60121)	2/11/2000 8:38:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

George, OPEC doesn't want to kill the Goose that... OK, so we've seen a little bit of public horse trading between Richardson and the Saudi's have we not? These two parties are really the principles. Saudi brings OPEC discipline and low stocks to the table. Richardson brings consumption. Richardson says $27 is getting too high. Richardson loses, he mentioned the number first. Saudi's come back with $25 - $27. Richardson puts a wee bit more public pressure on via screaming politicians and threats of recession, etc. and so forth. To mollify these parties Richardson say they need $23 - $26, which will appear to be a blessing with crude over $30. THE DEAL is split the difference and everybody goes home happy $24 - $26. Schumer shuts up and goes back to bashing Republicans - namely Rudi Giuliani. Hilary needs him badly, Rudi will eat her alive without him, trust me. Due to the lag effects of getting production ramped up and shipped crude will probably break over $30 for a brief period before settling back, as OPEC increases production slightly. quote.bloomberg.com Everyone breaths a huge sigh of relief - especially central bankers and bond traders. OPEC miscalculates the demand driven by lower rates and demographics and crude goes to $40 sometime in 2001. Fairy tales can come true, it can happen to you. <vbg>