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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris J. Horne who wrote (11853)	2/10/2000 9:18:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

"If you do not believe something has changed, how do you explain the record PEs? statistical aberation?" I have a long explanation for the current p/e levels. The short version includes: The so-called record is only in an ever-narrowing segment of the over-all market. This hardly counts for something like 'the market values stocks differently in the new era.' And here is the rub: crowd behaviour. I.e., the madness of crowds. This statement is, of course, a direct reference to Mr. Charles MacKay and his book on market manias and panics. "Please do not get worked up over this. I think we all need to kick around ideas...and try to make some sense out of what is going on." I am glad you wrote this. In print, we are quite lacking in those all important meta-messages that signal stuff like, 'I'm gonna bite' or 'I'm growling but I wanna play bite.' This is play. After all, it's only money. (And I really mean that.) "I have not studied events that lead to the rise and fall of the Japanese stock market, so I cannot comment on it." Well, there are significant parallels between aspects of that market top and the status of the North American markets. When markets top out--regardless of the market--there are common features. There is a kind of 'physics' to market bubbles. I cannot read this thing as Brinker presumably does but everything he has said so far, matches the historical records I've read. It is my opinion that we are right in the middle of an historic event of great proportions--the topping process of the Great Bull Market. I am sure as heck trying to pay attention to how it works in real life. Maybe I'll learn something. But then again, maybe I'll learn that p/e does not matter. With all good wishes, David Todtman