To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (77964 ) 2/10/2000 9:18:00 PM From: Piotr Koziol Respond to of 97611
El, everybody, is this "where the hound is buried" as the Germans say... here is a really interesting post from the Zoo: Texas Rambler I would make a by: ettubrutusad 2/10/00 9:02 pm Msg: 140524 of 140527 suggestion and have you go back a couple of months and read my posts on this subject. I happen to believe that this has been one of the most important reasons why CPQ can't get its stock price up or conversely, why Dell, AAPL, SUNW, etc. are able to trade at such incredible multiples of revenue. Take a look at the NYSE today and it is literally littered with incredibly cheap stocks from ALL to GT to ONE, etc. These stocks, like CPQ have fairly large floats and the specialists on the floor of the NYSE are in no position to provide their stock prices any real support. Institutional order flow dictates their price movements. Conversely, retail size order flow controls the price direction of Nasdaq stocks, even large cap stocks. Combining the power of a competitive bid system with anywhere from 25 to 50 market makers willing to provide at least the appearance of support for a stock's price with the power of ECNs through which market makers can now hide their intentions, coupled with dramatic increase in online trading has led to truly amazing upward movements for many Nasdaq stocks. It has become extremely difficult to short these stocks as a consequence. Valuations have nothing to do with any fundamental reality (IMO). Even in the case of Dell, where it is more than apparent that revenue growth has slowed, the stock really has not corrected nearly as much as one might expect, given its large float, and only 6 weeks ago was closing in on its 52 week high. I suspect it will do so again, although maybe not tomorrow. CPQ trades in big blocks of stock that dominate its price movement, and b/c there is so much stock available, it certainly seems that this stock can be shorted fairly easily with great effect whether its for purposes of getting at an option strike price or to do a short day trade. What is needed is a revolt by NYSE stocks to the NASD or a change in the way Nasdaq stocks trade to a type of electronic auction system rather than an electronic competitive bid system. The valuation chasm continues to grow and analysts continue putting absurd stock price targets on four letter stocks while using old valuation targets on many good NYSE companies with real earnings, only because of the difference in the trading systems. This problem is reaching a critical stage as new money continues to flow into growth funds at the expense of value funds that must keep selling off their downtrodden stocks to meet redemptions. It is forcing money managers that want to keep their jobs to continue dumping stocks with real value to chase tech stocks that are getting more and more overvalued (IMO). I suspect many managers are now totally neglecting the prudent man fiduciary responsibilites they may have in order to put in a good quarterly number. Where the madness will end is anybody's guess but the rules have changed and I don't see them changing again unless there is a revolt from the NYSE or the regulators step in in some way.