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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bearshark who wrote (39748)	2/11/2000 10:23:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

US JAN RETAIL SALES +0.3%, SHOWING POST-Y2K PULLBACK 08:30 EST 02/11 --Jan Non-auto Sales -0.3%, Reflects Nondurables -0.5% --Dec-Nov Sales Revised Higher; 1Q Non-auto 5.5% SAAR Above 4Q --Jan Food -2.2%, Restaurants -0.2%, Drug Sales -0.9% --Durables +1.4%: Autos +2.3%, Building Materials +0.7% By Joseph Plocek WASHINGTON (MktNews) - U.S. January retail sales rose 0.3% but were down 0.3% excluding autos, below expectations for about a half-point gain in both series. But there is reason to think underlying consumption remains strong, including huge upward revisions to December and November sales that offset the weakening. The revisions added about $600 million to 4Q sales. January non-auto sales stand 1.35% over the revised 4Q average, which suggests 5+% annualized consumption -- not really a slowing from the 4Q pace. Moreover, a lot of the January weakening in sales was in nondurables which fell 0.5%. Food sales dropped 2.2% and drugs were down 0.9% -- probably a Y2K re-reaction. Food was up 3.2% in December and drugs were up 1.8%. Consumers stocked up on goods and ate out for the millenium, then apparently retrenched in January. Durables purchases remained firm, up 1.4% in January. Autos gained 2.3%, and building materials were up 0.7%. Furniture sales were a bit weak at -0.4% after surging 1.8% in December. There are, however, some interesting historical comparisons for January's 0.3% drop in non-auto sales. The last time non-auto sales fell was December 1997, and the last time non-auto sales fell by a larger amount was in April 1997. The full year 1997, of course, was the last time that the Federal Reserve was in a credit tightening mode. >>>Looks like the only consumption items that fell were those >>>easily stockpiled for Y2K like food and drugs. All the big >>>ticket items moved ahead.