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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (60166)	2/11/2000 1:45:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

DeepWaterExSarge: on topic re: FGH Sarge,errr Deep...(VBG). FGH simply has done a $hi^^y job with IR - not the IR reps fault, all comes from the top... 14% Institutional ownership says it all. At THIS price; there are plenty of value players, or new money that would step in... We ALL know its cheap Sarge, but its cheap for many reasons; one being the poor communications and maybe lost trust in the Co ? Sarge, I am not sure that TDW is reflective of "deepwater" health, or demand ? You lose major credibility with statements, or observations like this imo. Watch DO & FLC to see what Deepwater demand will be ! When FLC & DO have full utilization & dayrates that financially make newbuilds profitable - then and ONLY then will we see ANY degree of a newbuild boom. A few minor hit & miss projects will NOT solve FGH's problems. ... you only need to go back to some 10 Q's to see how the actual "earnings/profit" broke out on refurb vs. the major offshore Rig Contracts. I stand by the fact, not opinion; that FGI and the now FGH will need and must have - Major Offshore Rig Newbuild Contracts to recover to even a former shadow of the $40 stock it was. Getting 10% of a Chinese contract aint cuttin it Sgt... Also, I wouldn't count too much on ANY shipbuilding business; as many are of the opinion that FGH may soon regroup to a smaller, leaner - core business Rig design-build, repair yard again - little, if any shipbuilding. Again - that 14% Institutional ownership is indicative of & endorses the unarguable fact; that Wall St does NOT like the unknown and that little value will be assigned to turnaround, re-orgs, or asset divesture M&A's untill the proof is in the numbers. I have no problem getting on the bandwagon later in the cycle if the Industry starts building offshore rigs again, I just dont see it - and this is definitely a "SHOW ME" stock if there ever was one... There is massive competition for the vastly reduced amount of Rig Const Newbuild business that is going to be available over the next few years. Sgt. FGH could have huge losses, charges in restructuring from this merger debacle and who knows what they will emerge as - and when ? Deadmoney & lost opportunity is the main risk here imo. Also, I refuse to reward someone for whom getting the story, the whole story and the honest story from; is like pulling wisdom teeth... the leak out just enough , with enough gray area to straddle... like Clinton imo. In all honesty; FGH deserves most of the heat they are getting... I also in my personal opinion belive, that there are some other factors that keep institutions away and will continue to do so with Holloway... my "opinion." Think about it; if J L Holloway can not hit Wall St and sell his company at $6 stinkin bucks a share; for more than 14% Institutional ownership; the one thing for sure that he is NOT ! - is a salesman. - so lets set that myth aside as well... We are gradually finding out just what he is and isn't imo... the facts stand. Good Luck; personally its unemotional. I start nibblin mid $5's - see mid $4's likely due to the long protracted silence that will be filled with worry & selling - thats human nature; takes no genius to see this coming. I'd also see "relief" rallys to $7's-$8 as well and I probably would take profits and then short a no-news, no fundamental run up here continually as well. It's a trader of minor interest; untill JL Holloway shows the Street the money - period. Imo, there "AINT" nothin pretty coming in the 10 Q - or, initially from the merger. With no Institutional ownership to speak of; the shorts can and will run stops on this at will; a panic blow off sub $5 will trigger massive margin calls - we have not seen the real "stop run" yet - we will. ... and I'll be there (VBG) - bank on it.