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To: SargeK who wrote (60179)	2/11/2000 9:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

DeepWaterExSarge; re: TDW - we do agree, TDW is a buy & a great company... But, I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I don't think that TDW is a "watch" stock, or an indicator for "Deepwater" - ie: Offshore Rig Newbuilds. My point; is that no one knows "if", or to what extent FGH will remain, if at all; in the shipbuilding business. If they stay in the lines of the TDW orders; then that is good news. My point is merely that no one knows "IF" FGH is in, or will stay in the shipbuilding side, or what areas... But, also - HLX ran a big, big backlog on the shipbuilding side... Didnt HLX do about $1 B+ in revenue over the peak 4 qtrs of 97-98 ? That $300M order may be stretched over a couple of years; FGH needs over $1.5 Billion imo of new orders/peak backlog in the next 9-12 mos; for it to be in any "Boom 2000" environment and to regain its place as a "mo-mo" player. If they do it; I'll be there, I just have my doubts... The time to buy FGH is when they "get" the TDW order - not now; too many questions. But, as far as if not FGH, then who ? - ask yourself if TDW see's the litigation & recent problems; and "if" FGH is indeed shopping shipbuilding assets; do they want to lose the downtime, accept the risk; that maybe FGH may not be in the position to fullfill that contract ? You don't get any arguement from me that TDW is a nice core company to own; certainly is THE "boat" company... allthough GMRK is interesting & higher upside potential, but riskier - you can occassionally pick up sub $13 intra-day, big spreads... and it should outperform on a % basis by peak cycle imo. TMAR also, has more risk; as does GMRK than TDW - but, if there is a Globabl Boom 2000 - these should see substantial upside. The North Sea after all, is not the Dead Sea... I've never had a bad word to say about TDW and owned it and like it in the past. We had a poster who knew TDW real well and was a Boat Captain with his own web site - about a year ago here on SI. I forgot his screen name ? ... We argee on TDW - its a safe play; they are NOT going anywhere. TDW - we have no arguement on. - quit being so quick on the trigger (VBG)... I just like the boats & Fabs as later cycle plays.