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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saulamanca who wrote (39836)	2/14/2000 9:11:00 AM
From: Saulamanca	Respond to of 99985

Tales of McGurvey. Capital Growth Topics #312: McGurvey McGurvey--a pseudonym for a hedge fund operator and advisor of my acquaintance--has fallen upon hard times. Once again his bearishness has gotten ahead of the market. I note the steady arrival of cautious/bearish comment from a fellow whose work is bullish but whose opinion is bearish. Late last year McGurvey developed an opinion about how things were going to play out this year. That opinion was based on how McGurvey expected his analytical work to behave. However, the market fooled him and instead of turning bearish as he expected, his work--horror of horrors--turned bullish. But he is unable to change his opinion; it seems that his work is more flexible than he is. Now it may turn out that he is right, or it may turn out that he is wrong. Whatever the case, his plight is an object lesson--the market is always right. I recall some years ago McGurvey got bearish on a stock and tried to argue it down to zero for a couple of years. He ranted, he raved, he pounded the table, he brought in experts, he consulted the competition, he did extensive research. But that stock paid no attention whatsoever and went on to become one of the biggest winners of all time. One of the harshest lessons the market has to offer is humility. It is quite simple. The market is right, 100% of the time, and unless you are one with the market you are wrong. Arguing with the market is simply wrong, 100% of the time. This is a lesson McGurvey intellectually knows, but emotionally cannot cope with. We are all anxious to achieve wealth via the market. To do so one must be one with the market, not at odds with it. McGurvey will never learn. He'll go on arguing with the market and sowing the seeds of his own destruction until the market finally breaks him. John Bollinger, CFA, CMT 11 February 2000 bollingerbands.com