To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11888 ) 2/11/2000 9:24:00 PM From: Justa Werkenstiff Respond to of 15132
Consumer confidence at 32-year high Jan. 25, 2000 NEW YORK (AP) -- A booming stock market and plentiful jobs pushed consumer confidence, a driving force in the economy's long expansion, to the highest level ever recorded by a private research group that has been tracking the data for more than 32 years. ''Consumers have every reason to be optimistic. There is just nothing going wrong,'' said economist Mark Zandi at Regional Financial Associates in West Chester, Pa. The Conference Board, which studies business and finance trends, reported Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 144.7 in January, the highest level reached since the business-financed group began keeping such records in February 1967. Wall Street analysts had only expected a reading of 141.5 in the index, which is based on monthly interviews with 5,000 U.S. households and measures consumer optimism about current and future business conditions. Economists pay close attention to the index since consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of the U.S. economy and is a major factor behind the current U.S. growth streak, which is due next month to become the longest on record. Zandi attributed the ''euphoria'' among consumers to a confluence of factors: historically low levels of unemployment, a booming stock market, and low inflation. ''Until the stock market cools, confidence will not weaken and consumers will not stop spending,'' he said. Some economists caution, however, that the U.S. economy's heavy reliance on consumer spending can be a mixed blessing since sentiment can be affected by unforeseen factors such as political turmoil or sudden changes in economic policies, like a tax increase. ''Any time you have an economy that is influenced so much by consumer confidence you have to be on the lookout,'' said Gary R. Thayer, chief economist at the A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. brokerage in St. Louis. ''If there were unexpected world events, a sudden policy change, or an aggressive rate raise by the Fed, then you could have problems,'' Thayer said. One downside of the continued expansion is an inevitable rise in interest rates. Bond yields have been creeping higher in recent months, and Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has hinted that the Fed may raise interest rates again at its meeting Feb. 1-2. The Conference Board survey reported 47% of those responding rated the current business environment ''good'' and 54% said jobs were ''plentiful.'' The Conference Board's report also said that consumers' optimism about future economic conditions is continuing to improve. The percentage of respondents anticipating better business conditions over the next six months rose to 19.6% from 17.5% last month. Those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 3.3% from 4.8%.