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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KY who wrote (17763)	2/11/2000 8:29:00 PM
From: Dr. Id	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

More good RMBS news: (still a possible gorilla...) Intel selects DRDRAM for new MPU By Jack Robertson Electronic Buyers' News (02/11/00, 04:12:44 PM EDT) Intel Corp. is making Direct Rambus DRAM the key memory for its next-generation Willamette processor, which will be spotlighted next week at the Intel Developers' Forum. Although the Rambus architecture has faced stiff competition in recent months from rival memory interfaces, sources close to Intel, Santa Clara, Calif., say the company is removing any ambiguity about its commitment to Direct RDRAM by giving the controversial memory chip a prime role in the Willamette platform. The support for Rambus memory is significant, since Intel is counting on Willamette, the high-speed successor to the Pentium III, to subdue the rising challenge from Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s Athlon microprocessor. An Intel spokesman would not comment on the Willamette's associated chipset and memory until the device is officially introduced. Without referring specifically to the processor's reported use of a Rambus interface, the spokesman said Intel has never wavered in its support of the technology. Rambus has been and remains a major part of Intel's memory roadmap, he said. Intel has already confirmed previous reports that Willamette will use a new, higher-speed processor line to succeed the venerable P6 bus. But the company declined to discuss details of the new bus, which sources said can run at up to 400 MHz in a quad-pumped configuration supporting up to four processors. Intel's next-generation 32-bit Foster, 64-bit Itanium, and McKinley processors are also said to be using the new bus. Willamette will use an upcoming Intel Tehama chipset, which sources say is an upgrade of the dual-channel Direct Rambus-compatible Intel 840 chipset. Tehama picks up almost all of the north bridge and south bridge functions included in the 840, but interfaces with the new processor bus. Burt McComas, an analyst at InQuest Inc., a Gilbert, Ariz., market research firm, said Intel considers the 840 chipset and associated six-layer motherboard to be proven technology, and expects the Tehama upgrade to support Direct RDRAM without the technical troubles that plagued its sister Intel 820 chipset and motherboard last fall. While Rambus is the memory interface of choice for the Willamette, sources said Intel could fall back to double-data-rate (DDR) SDRAM if necessary. It is uncertain whether Intel will introduce the Willamette and Tehama with the Memory Conversion Hub (formerly known as the Memory Transfer Hub) motherboard option offered with the Intel 820, which enables the use of either Direct Rambus or SDRAM. Archrival AMD, Sunnyvale, Calif., plans this year to upgrade its Athlon microprocessor to support DDR for desktops and workstations, which McComas said could put greater competitive pressure on Intel to follow suit. Intel has long denied rumors that it's developing a DDR chipset for desktop PCs, although the company said it will have a DDR-enabled chipset for servers in the first half of 2001. The DDR-compatible server chipset is said to be part of a cooperative effort with ServerWorks Corp., Santa Clara, which recently changed its name from Reliance Computer Corp. ServerWorks later this year will introduce a separate version of a DDR-enabled server chipset for the upcoming Foster and McKinley processors. McComas noted that since the Willamette uses the same processor bus as Foster and McKinley, it could interface with the ServerWorks' DDR chipset instead of Tehama and Direct Rambus, if Intel decides to make the move.

To: KY who wrote (17763)	2/11/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Comparing SEBL and GMST KY, If we are purely comparing SEBL/GMST gorilla markets (VCR+ vs. CRM), I would give the nod to SEBL. Am I miss-valuing the potential of the VCR+ market...alone? No, you're not. But the reality is that few of us would invest in Gemstar if we were doing so on the basis of their Gorillahood in VCR+. That product is on Main Street, near the top of the bell curve if not already well past it. Where I think many are missing the boat is in the thinking that one should wait until the tornado forms to invest in Gemstar. I have established a partial position because it's my thinking that part of Gemstar's IPG technology, the part that is used by the end user, is an applications technology. As you know, Gorilla Gaming advocates buying applications technologies in the bowling alley, which is where I think those IPGs are. For those who want to wait until the enabling technology enters the tornado, that's ceratinly a reasonable invstment decision. But I'd prefer that they do that because 1) they consciously disagree with me that there is an apps aspect to Gemstar's technology and/or 2) they prefer the lower risk/lower reward scenario of waiting until the apps tornado forms. To get to the specific point of comparing Gemstar and Siebel, it's critically important to recognize that Gemstar is part (if not all) enabling technology whereas Siebel is only an apps technology. The power of an enabling Gorilla far surpasses the power of an apps Gorilla. And the mass-market potential of a consumer-based enabling Gorilla is nothing short of mind boggling, remembering of course that Siebel's market is not consumer-based. In the end, if I could invest only in Siebel or Gemstar and could do so only once the tornado had formed, Gemstar would be my choice. Why? Because the Gem is a consumer-based enabler. Siebel's product is neither consumer-based nor an enabling product. Just my opnion(s). --Mike Buckley