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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (37739)	2/11/2000 8:50:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

To All: The Gartner group, as GV Tucker reminds us over at the INTC thread, was a big alarmist concerning Y2K. This is a typical consultant ploy for drumming up business. Let us ferret out those hidden (non - existent) bugs. JFD

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (37739)	2/12/2000 2:22:00 PM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

I agree that the 25% problem rate is a red herring. On the other hand, adoption of Linux by the nerds is significant, in my opinion. Consider this: what's all the fuss about W2K from a revenue perspective? As others have pointed out on this thread, companies are increasingly less inclined to upgrade software on legacy PCs, and doubly so now that Y2K is past. The new-computer market for W2K is cannibalistic of existing NT sales; from a revenue perspective the growth rate is really unchanged versus overall growth in workstation and server purchases. Ditto consumer PC sales, which in any case as noted on this thread will run 98 or Millenium but not W2K. Revenue-wise, what's interesting about W2K is the potential for the Wintel axis to strike a blow where it hurts against purveyors of high-priced server solutions such as SUNW. Obviously a big driver for these sales is internet server deployments. Guess what? It's those self-same nerds making many of the decisions! Their opinions are overweighted on the side of the potential market that constitutes the big growth opportunity for both INTC and MSFT. I believe that Intel is well-positioned with its long-awaited IA64 architecture. I think the nerds and nerdettes will flock to lower-cost solutions from Intel. Companies like Oracle which have products available on Intel independent of OS choice are also well-positioned, though in the case of Oracle they will face more competition from SQL*Server (only if the OS choice is W2K, tho). MSFT faces unexpected competition for the OS portion of this pie, from Linux. Of course they are still well-positioned with W2K but they can no longer be assumed to walk away with 100% of the spoils. Should be interesting. Just my opinion, not investment advice. VG