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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7929)	2/11/2000 9:22:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 9256

Tom, KMAG is next. Just a WAG. I don't own it. Gottfried [end]

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7929)	2/13/2000 11:04:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 9256

>> now that APM bit the dust who is the next croaker, KMAG, RDRT, or WDC? WDC received a $20 M investment on Jan 31 from an institution in exchange for 4 m shares of stock. Also their pricing is firm, volume should probably be high, expenses less, and they are selling unused real estate. I know you have unbridled optimism for WDC, so you'll be happy to know that they'll stay in business for a long while. In addition, they converted several hundred million $ of debt into stock, so their interest payments are also reduced. And there is much less chance of defaulting on covenants. Now it is just a matter of waiting for disk demand to exceed supply, and hopefully a double digit stock price. -Sarmad

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (7929)	2/13/2000 8:01:00 PM
From: T Bowl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Tom - <<Question for you.....now that APM bit the dust who is the next croaker, KMAG, RDRT, or WDC?>> If you haven't already, read the latest Insight article on the HDD industry, esp the section on component counts. It includes a very scary quote: << Some HDD companies forecasted that by yearend 2000, more than 80 percent of their desktop unit output would be single-disk or single-surface. Drives going into enterprise applications are also expected to exhibit stunning erosion in the disks/drive ratio. Clearly, demand is expected to be unstable for at least the next year, so perhaps some head, media, or substrate companies will find it easier to blend with another supplier to remain alive.>> Add up the components that will be sold in the future. Any weak player is toast. KMAG is next, followed by RDRT. (and WDC will be somewhere in there as well IMO.) todd