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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JGoren who wrote (6443)	2/12/2000 7:08:00 PM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

The latest issue of Forbes included Forbes ASAP. The theme for this issue of ASAP was entitled: ?The Internet Revolution Has Legs, But Now Heads Must Roll / The End of The Beginning.? It contained many interesting articles, which I recommend to those interested. One of the articles was a joint interview of Gordon Moore (Moore?s Law) and Bob Metcalf (Metcalf?s Law). They spoke about many things ? including per Metcalf the stock market bubble and the coming return to 10x multiples (something he has been predicting for a few years). Metcalf said a couple of things that caught my attention. First, he had criticicized attempts by some in the wireless industry to come up with their own protocol (WAP) for wireless networks. He said that he hoped ?Metcalf?s Law helps them decide that?s a really bad idea. They had better be sure that the wireless infrastructure they are building can interoperate with the Internet, or else they are going to lose the benefits of that quadratic gain in value.? More importantly, he said one thing in particular that I think will impact Qualcomm. He was talking about broadband and what it will mean to American homes. He said that the two things broadband will mean are ?high speed and ?always on?.? He then went on to say that he thinks ?always on is the killer app. There are gazillions of potential smaller killer apps that don?t make sense if it takes five minutes to turn on the Internet. But they make a lot of sense if the Internet is always on.? I recently got DSL and I can say from personal experience that ?always on? is far and away the best benefit I have received. It is the first reason I give to anyone contemplating getting DSL or cable modem to do so. So in this respect at least, I fully agree with Metcalf. However, Metcalf also said that broadband ?will take 10 years to reach most American homes.? And I immediately thought of Qualcomm and HDR. While HDR may not be the equal of fiber, it is broadband, it is ?always on? and it will be ready for people?s homes beginning in one year! And it is mobile!! Dr. Jacobs words from the November HDR conference are coming back to me about HDR service being a real and cost effective possibility for the last mile. 2001 should be a very interesting year!