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To: TraderGreg who wrote (13321)	2/11/2000 10:46:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Respond to of 14266

I like the statistical approach you use. Implicit in your thoughts is the following: Its just not the probabilities, it's expected outcome that is the key. Expected outcome = (Probability of event X benefit) - (Probability of non-event X risk). So if a 0.25 event has a payout of $100 and a .75 probability non-event produces a $10 loss, that's (.25 X 100) - (.75 X 10) = ($25 - 7.50) = +17.50. (Btw the way, this is the secret of both good plaintiff attorneys and consistent stock market winners; you can win just 25% of the time and make out very big). DocStone