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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (20370)	2/12/2000 10:30:00 AM
From: mike mulhearn	Respond to of 57584

Anyone like INTD? eom

To: Rande Is who wrote (20370)	2/12/2000 10:52:00 AM
From: bobby is sleepless in seattle	Respond to of 57584

hi Rande, just noticed I posted on your thread inadvertently, meant to give kudos to an individual who posts on another thread. My intent certainly was not to hype, rather to give notice to its upside movement and credit where it's due. You've got a great bunch of individuals sharing tremendous insight day in/out as I've followed your/their thoughts throughout, and remain in complete agreement with your trading philosphy. Message 12831631

To: Rande Is who wrote (20370)	2/12/2000 11:05:00 AM
From: Densiebj	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

AEOS has 9 strong buys, 4 moderate buys, 1 hold, and 1 strong sell (who was the idiot with the strong sell?)Quarter after quarter they have surprised anywhere from 9% to 25% Earnings estimates for this quarter are .67, year 2000 are 1.77, year 2001 are 2.17 90 new stores are expected to open this year AEOS put out this statement and I agree biz.yahoo.com BBY has 7 strong buys, 8 moderate buys and 3 holds for 39 weeks ending 11/27/99, revenues increased 24% and net income rose 71% Earnings extimates coming in are for .71 estimates for year 2000---1.58 estimatesfor 2001 are 1.94 Feb 1st the company announced the repurchase of 400 million shares of companys common stock As far as Staples goes, I do almost all my shopping there. I believe the nearest OMX and BBY are nearly 3 hours away. I did drive 3 hours to shop for Christmas and spent alot of moolah at Best Buy AEOS is one of my daughters and future son-in-laws favorite stores capitalD

To: Rande Is who wrote (20370)	2/12/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Dnorman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande: I have another question as I am still in the learning stage. I notice CapitalD did some work on retailers and he thought AEOS would be a good one. I went to my charts and noticed it has been in a downtrend, since October 99 but is getting close to a longer term Oct 98 resistance line a little above $25. RSI and Bollinger Bands are all low and earnings come out on March 9th. Two other factors that are in my mind, the market looks high right now and I have heard of trying to catch a falling knife. My questions are as follows. 1. Do you think this may be a good play to buy anticipating going into earnings and then sell just before earnings? 2. Is this a risky play? 3. Is this like catching a falling knife? Thanks Dennis

To: Rande Is who wrote (20370)	2/12/2000 6:57:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Talking retail value, Rande? Good timing (finally, I hope). I believe the last month's hammering of the sector (and all other traditional sectors) has been completely overblown. Look at the balance sheets and earnings reports then at the pathetic prices and PE's all but GPS are selling for. You put down TOM but it's a screaming buy. Has come down something like 70% from last year's high with a PE of about 5. Jeez Loueeze. I'm wearing a cool hip Hilfiger shirt right now and I get compliments on it. They're not going out of business. Just have to evolve. ANF I agree will have great earnings Tuesday. I own 2000 shares and expect to make a nice profit. Maybe that will help poor BEBE which has killed me (down $25,000 on it now after I didn't sell at 25, my cost $21). A $40,000 turnaround for me. Am waiting though. Anything positive could send the stock soaring from the basement PE of 13. It's earnings are consistently in the 30+% area. No debt and 80 mill cash. COuld buy the entire float for 35 million now. Last year's high $50 now at $14. AEOS, URBN, etc. etc. all similarly great buys. But retail's problems are not unique. Look at drug stocks. Greater perennial growth stocks now down to 52 week lows or below. JNJ at 77, MRK at 65, LLY at 61, BMY at 60. Biotechs have soared but pharmas are the biggest biotech companies of all. Financials, OLB's, basic products, aerospace, cyclicals etc. all have "corrected" bigtime down 10-50% or more in some cases. The only sector I agree shouold have corrected down is e-commerce because they are losing money. The Naz has gone up because the CSCO, INTC, MSFT, SUNW, EMC stocks have sky-rocketed while the rest of teh market has gotten scant interest as its decayed into screaming value territory. You were right about your predictions a few weeks ago that value wasn't going to be bought until it's suddenly back in vogue nomatter how compelling the bargain. But pul-eeze, this has got to turn around. There comes a point where there's little or no downside left and a huge downside for the high-fliers. Remember when AOL crashed down from 200 to 80? That was the high-flier at the time. Barrons now reports CSCO over-valued. Well of course it is. And a stock like BEBE which if the CEO sold out would fetch 500% its current price on fundemantals alone is considered the risky investment? People talk about the future being wireless. Fine, but we already use wireless. I've got two cel phones. But I'd rather work the internet at my desk thank you. Can you imagine trying to post this with a Nokia phone or a Palm Pilot? Besides that next wave is years away. All R+D now. I am frustrated with my BEBE losses, but know from experience that just when things seem bleakest they can turn around on a dime. There is no way I'd trade my current ANF or BEBE shares for CSCO shares at these prices. CSCO is a great company but it's been overdone. Maybe I'm just posing the question - how the hell can a few stocks defy gravity for so long while others making scads of cash with no debt and terrific futures be pummeled by shiorts and nay-sayers into the ground? I know it can happen, it has happened. But how long can it keep going? And what is needed to turn it around? Greenspan wanted to slow down the high-fliers but instead he slowed down the traditional market stocks instead. If oil prices could just start falling (US government selling of its reserves?) then inflation fears would disappear (because without oil high there is no inflation) and value would be value again. Have been losing money for the past three weeks but am sticking to my guns holding BEBE, ANF, TOM, LLY, JNJ, LU, DD stocks and CPQ. If I had cash left I'd buy a lot more. Even the 3M's, Duponts, Boeings, etc. Congrats to all who have avoided value stocks (3/4 of the market now) since early January. But now may be the time to switch from your high-fliers into those which have little or no downside left and plenty of good earnings. At least I sure hope it's that time because except for ESHR I am fully invested in value right now. Trying to be patient but boy has this gotten frustrating.