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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Investor2 who wrote (11899)2/12/2000 11:46:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
I2: Re: "Unfortunately, my largest sale was in PBTCX, which has gone up the most."

As you know, Bob's call must be measured against the broader market. PBTCX was up what --- over 230% last year? The strongest are always the last to fall in a declining market. Why? All the fish are chasing them from their underperforming holdings. One cannot predict with accuracy the extent to which a crowd will chase winners in a speculative market.

I have noticed this weekend that I have not heard one talking head address the possibility that we may be at the start of a bear market now. I find that fascinating. The Dow is dead, blah, blah blah. Ignore the Dow, blah, blah, blah. There is a new economy and an old economy, blah, blah, blah. Gee, I thought we had one economy when you add it all up. Okay, forget about the Dow and the Naz, why not address the S & P 500. Silence. Looks like a downward channel to me. Can we really rally to new highs with the financials in the tank, $30 oil, rising commodity prices, a tightening Fed., gold on the move, valuations at all time levels, sentiment at historic levels, a worry free consumer and historically tight labor markets? More silence. Time for the leaders to fade here.



To: Investor2 who wrote (11899)2/13/2000 4:29:00 PM
From: Lars  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 15132
 
*** Market Summary ***

02/11/00 02/04/00 %Change

S&P 500 1,387.11 1,424.37 -2.62%
Dow Jones 10,425.21 10,963.80 -4.91%
NASD Comp 4,395.40 4,244.14 +3.56%
Russell 2000 537.10 525.52 +2.20%
SOX Index 912.19 868.02 +5.09%
Value Line 404.91 417.28 -2.96%
MS Growth 489.11 508.24 -3.76%
MS Cyclical 474.91 511.74 -7.20%
T - Bill 5.47% 5.49% -2 BP
Long Bond 6.30% 6.23% +7 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $313.60 $313.00 +$.60
Silver - Oz-Near Month $5.35 $5.57 -$.22

*Consumer Credit for December rose +$11.2 billion
A +9.7% Annualized Rate - November revised up

*Richmond FRB Index eased to +13 from +15

*Fourth Quarter Productivity Fantastic - +5.0%
Unit Labor Costs Decline -1.0% - Compensation +4%

*Wholesale Inventories rose +.4% in December
Sales up +1.1%

*Jobless Claims rose +27,000 to 301,000

FWIW, take a look at the three month chart on QQQ. This is fascinating to me. Only 3 months.

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