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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael Watkins who wrote (39961)2/12/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: bobby beara  Respond to of 99985
 
MW, excellent post,

The bears haven't really been as wrong as most people think, while you read all over the press about the record economic expansion and great bull market, under the hood, most listed blue chip bull market stalwarts since 1982 have been in bear markets starting as far back as 7/98

and it lists like a who's who of corporate america

coke, merck, xerox, philip morris, boeing . . .

This "new economy" is a stock traders economy, based on traders expectations that these companies will double every year to "infinity and beyond"

A Toy Story 3 -g-

The technological revolution is real, the stock prices driven up by hype and emotion is ephemeral.

This is late stage bull market behavior, the nasdaq followed the spx all thru this bull market from 1982, when the listed stocks stopped going up in July of 98, the nasdaq diverged and has gone parabolic, the spx has basically has been in a trading range with a slightly upward bias.

Market players use "new economy" to maske the reality of speculation, greater fool trading.

Your right there will be no meteor, at some point it will roll-over for no good reason at all (other than the last person bought)

It's pretty amazing to me that the top ten timers are all bullish as the dow and spx have made two lower highs since jan 3rd and the nas has made two higher highs.

b



To: Michael Watkins who wrote (39961)2/12/2000 2:49:00 PM
From: KY  Respond to of 99985
 
Michael,

"However, the upside risks currently, with today's picture, are dwarfed by the downside risks."

I agree with you completely.

And that is why I will be trimming back my positions in CSCO, PMCS, AMAT, and ORCL on Monday.

KY