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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40038)	2/12/2000 6:40:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Mike just a quick note about the NYSE..as i head to the showers and out to din-din on my anniversary...man she put up with me for 33 years???? i wonder who's really crazy<g> while i know you're not aware of Point & Figure charting...i would like to point out here...that our main indicator the NYSEBP( New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index) is all the stocks in that index...this charts those stocks on buy and sell signals...right now there are many more sells than buys... and we are heading down right now to very low levels...what this really means is this...as you eyeball a football field, we are nearing the 30 yard line down from the 50, heading toward "believe this or not" over SOLD territory...above the 50 toward the 70 or 80% area is overbought..like in the semis sector right now... i know i know, this seems ridiculous..but Mike i assure you it's not....we are in the throws of a potential historical event in NYSE Bullish Percent CHart..if we continue down from here....and...if when we selloff we dip below the 30% level..this imo, would be one hell of a buying opportunity of major proportions... while the general investing/trading public will panic sell into this event...we piffers will be buying this dip quitely and calmly...waiting for the enevitable exciting turn around coming on down the road... the gist of all this...is simply your time frame...and if/what your trying to accomplish here...if you're a long term investor then you will welcome this event, and gladly buy those loved stocks "ON SALE" once again...it's happened each and every year for a long long time.... and as for a Bear Market??? boy i cannot see that far ahead...i truly doubt well see that event in the next 1-2-3 years or so...remember here...we have had 4 rate hikes...if the economy slows too much, he'll have to cut rates again...and what with the wonderous world of productivity happening right before our eyes...i can't for the life of me see any bear market... anyway..it's fun exchanging ideas... have a nice weekend...i am heading to a very nice evening ahead... regards Jerry

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40038)	2/12/2000 7:27:00 PM
From: awi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It will be interesting to see if the latest runs in Canada, England and Japan all stall out too... and there are signs. Michael, now that you mention foreign stocks: in the Netherlands the main index seems to be stalling too at the moment. Symbol of the index is ^AEX on Yahoo - for an overview of the stocks look at night-trading.com . Most of them trade in NY too: quote.yahoo.com It seems the index could be showing signs of topping too. Many stocks seem to be in a downtrend and a small number (techs, telecoms!) have carried the advance of this index in the last few months. Without them, the index would've been 20% lower). Would you have any particular thoughts on this pattern in the chart? I'd be interested.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40038)	2/12/2000 11:27:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

OK, I had to poke my head in here. <g> >>>It will be interesting to see if the latest runs in Canada, England and Japan all stall out too... and there are signs.<<< I don't chart the foreign indexes directly, but I do chart the ADRs of some of them and I show the JPN which is the Japan index ADR up against a significant resistance line here with a short term (but not strong) sell signal. This stems form connecting a weekly chart of it connecting hte tops of April 91 and June 96 as well as noting the multiple tops in this price range over the last few years that failed. I was considering trading it but found better fish to fry this weekend. I also show some interesting chart patterns in our market that are troubling me. While I think the NASDAQ is severely over bought and ready for a correction at any time of fairly serious but not necessarily BK strength, I also show the broader market threatening to have a fairly firm bottom put in sometime in the next month to 6 weeks. Unfortunately, I am using weekly charts to arrive at this so I can't nail the time frame down any better yet since I use them to get me with the main trend and use the daily charts for actual trade decisions. My daily charts show us a bit away from the main bottom as of yet. I do expect a short term bounce this week but not the final bottom and bounce so I am on hold for what I am refering to here. Now to make myself more clear and point out where the disparity is let me say I am talking about the broad market and NOT technology or Biotechs. I am referring to the broad market IE the DOW, the NYSE, S&P 500, OIX, RLX, etc and NOT the NASDAQ, NDX, NWX, CWX, TXX etc. My longer term charts set on weekly sticks and longer term cycles are all below 50 and some are already in the 20s. What this means is that they should bottom out below 20 in the next couple of weeks then bounce either straight up or do one weak bounce and double bottom and move up. On the other hand, I still show the tech sectors ready to decline and the 3 peaks and a domed house are appearing on not only the NASDAQ/NDX indexes but also the sector indexes like the CWX, TXX etc. Now the confusion factor.... Will the tech slam hold back the bounce in the broader market or will there be a mass migration from the high flyers to the so called value stocks and prior unloved which would be great if it broadened out the market again from the narrowness we have seen lately? Heck if I know. Another item I found interesting is that there are hints that while interest rates may continue to climb, an argument could be made that the TYX has also been forming a topping pattern almost identical to the NASDAQ which would point to a collapse in interest rates. A mass flight to quality bond buying????? In other words, we are in for a rocky time here in the next few months but a most profitable one if we can figure all this out ahead of time and get positioned accordingly. Should we short the weak sectors for a meltdown despite the over sold readings on the chance that the bounce will be a great short entry opportunity? Short the tech sector for the rotation since it has the most room to fall or go long the DOW and beaten up NYSE stocks that are lagging and so unloved right now with cheap calls for the rally farther down the road? There are several good possibilities ahead for those that can figure this puzzle out. Riddle me this, riddle me that, who is going to skin the cat... (instead of petting it, it did eat the fish DOW and JONES) <g> KY - As ot the bearish nature of the thread, a rally in CSCO, JDSU, EMC and a handful of other high flyers does not make a bull market. I can find 20 charts of declining good stocks for every fluff stock going up. We stopped having a bull market in April 98. They just don't want to tell J6P since he still has some gambling money left to take away from him. ( I forgot who it was but) RE - All clowns.... Give me a break. The boy who cried wolf.... Yes chicken little will be right someday but at least talk about why he will be right so there is some substance. This is still a good thread although tempers have been getting riled a bit the last few months which has kept some of us away lately. Still it has some of the best talent on SI if not the web. If you guys want to rile up the crowd, why not go pick on the perma bulls on teh other threads, your preaching to the choir here. We all know the market stinks, we just want to try to nail the top based on TA or fundamentals, not wear a sign that the sky is falling and we are all going to burn unless we get saved. I'll take my toys and go back home now, my mommy is calling me for supper. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee