To: Pallisard who wrote (18280 ) 2/13/2000 11:35:00 AM From: lws Respond to of 27311
Hi, Pallisard, Dennis, Rich, and everyone, Sorry to be responding so slowly, but it was good to hear from you in your recent posts. I certainly remember last year's shareholders' meeting, and the fun afterward. I wouldn't miss it this year! Marge will be with me (last year she was at a christening in Pittsburgh) ? partly because she knows it was such a good trip last year. It'll be great to get a big dose of Valence information and insight, a big dose of partying with all us shareholders, and a vacation (and a chance to see family in Reno) to boot. Great celebration and vacation coming, is the way I see it. You may remember that last year I came to the shareholders' meeting with a purpose, and I'm coming with one this year, too. Last year I wanted to watch Lev and the board, and whether anyone flinched. It worked out fine. I saw a lot; nobody flinched. Out of it came my realization that I was betting -- justifiably -- on the jockey, Lev, in holding the stock of this peculiar "horse" with such enormous potential and enormous risk. Over the year since, I think my understanding of the company has improved significantly from adopting the jockey viewpoint. Of course I also like what I see; I think the jockey has ridden a good race to this point. Or to change metaphors, this past year he has very nicely tacked his boat through a difficult part of the course (yes, why not) to the golden fleece. (...nah...) Anyway, this year I have a purpose for Tuesday's meeting that comes out of all this. I'm coming to Henderson to see how my preconceptions of the coming year match up with what Lev has to say. I want to see how much of the details I can divine of Lev's plans and expectations for Valence for the coming year, and I want to chew them over with everyone in Henderson and on the thread. I have a detailed idea, as do we all, of how the significant "events" of the year ought to line up. We expect purchase orders, additional production capacity, shipments, and revenues, and we can imagine a reasonable chronology and timetable for such "events." I want Lev's latest words to check and update my sense of this schedule. Already, I gotta figure out the meaning and implications of these 2 extra lines we got on Friday. We have come a long way since last year's shareholder meeting, and I think we will go an even longer way by next year's meeting. As it looks to me now, after the conference call and before the meeting, the coming year could be just plain exciting, assuming all goes well (and Lev directs). I should say I have a list of about 16 such "events" for the year 2000, or until the next meeting, which I meant to post before the conference call. I'll be home a week after the meetings, & put it together with what comes out of Henderson and subsequent discussions -- if it still looks then as promising as it does now. If it is nearly right, the future of the company looks bright: for now, it looks like by next year's meeting the company could have its $250m run rate (or whatever it is now, after Friday's conference call) and be on the edge of the promised land (with land mines all around behind it). A last comment before packing: I think the conference call gave a mis-impression of the issue of the relative profitability of the cellphone cells and the laptop cells. While the margins on the laptop cells are nicely higher, I understand from Lev himself in October that he expects the margins on the cellphone cells to be excellent. He saw the cellphone cells as essential to getting li-poly technology the exposure in the market necessary for selling the laptop cells, but he did not view the cellphone cells as "loss-leaders." Quite the contrary. He expects to get rich on the cellphone cells, and a lot richer on the laptop cells. See you tomorrow! Regards, lws