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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (20390)	2/12/2000 8:34:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Hey, Spirit. Yeah, retailers are beaten down alright. But on TOM, my discussion was about this next earnings report. I think it will be terrible and knock the price down more. I could be wrong, but I must call them as I see them. . . that's what you guys pay me for. . . or something like that. . . I think Hilfiger clothing is great. Very well made. . . and I love the thread count on their long sleeve Oxfords. . . I have white and navy. Good stuff. But think about it. . . the department stores nationwide have dedicated an enormous portion of their stores to Hilfiger for men. . . yet the sales were very disappointing. . . how do I know? By visiting the department various stores in January and noticing the racks from November were still full of clothing. . . hardly scientific. . .[remember, I had a clothing company for 5 years, too]. . . .so I sort of keep one eye on the rag biz. . . .just stopped going to the MAGIC convention [fashion] in Vegas 2 years ago. Not hard to see what is going to be popular from year to year. . . just go there and look around at where all the buyers are hanging. I'm losing some on BEBE, too. . .but also holding out for earnings. I do like AEOS, too. Maybe I'm just posing the question - how the hell can a few stocks defy gravity for so long while others making scads of cash with no debt and terrific futures be pummeled by shiorts and nay-sayers into the ground? Spirit, now you sound like the fund managers that have been holding DuPont, Deere, Kodak, 3M and Alcoa . . . .saying tech stocks MUST correct and when they do. . . everyone will want these value plays. But the techs keep on going. . . because this revolution is enormous. And I believe there absolutely WILL be rotation into banks, cyclicals, retailers, drug stocks, REITs and even transportation. But I also believe that we have not yet seen the blow-off top of tech stocks. . . .it must get far higher before it turns. . . and I believe the turn will not happen until about April Fools day. I know that is NOT what you want to hear. . . .but the rally in the markets has little to do with the broad market. . . it is ALL about tech. That is why I don't even understand why the Dow Industrials are used to reflect the markets. . . they don't. . . and the Naz certainly doesn't. . . perhaps the Wilshire is the best indicator of how the markets are really reacting. . . .then again, the QQQ is a good indicator of techs. . . . but trying to get the S&P or the Dow to reflect the real direction of the markets is putting the cart before the horse. And this is why we ALL need a well rounded portfolio of stocks and other investments taking up the bulk of our investment monies. A nice helping of tech stocks. . .alongside a nice helping of value plays. . . and a good helping of blue chip earnings plays. . . with some foreign issues on the side. This sort of diversity will definitely limit the percentage of growth in your ports. . . but it will also keep it from dropping quickly on market turns and volatility. The market in the past 2 weeks has been nasty . . you had better be a good stock picker, or you will be eaten for lunch. We need to begin moving into these safety plays with the money from the high tech blow-off tops . . . re-investing that money back into even more volatile tech plays is highly speculative at this point. . . and is a greed based move that could have an ugly ending. So we need to readjust our focus, in the face of a raging tech market. This is not a warning to sell sell sell. . . . but rather a call to adjust our thinking. . .our mindsets. . . and our focus. . . rather than looking for the next tech stock to become hot, our focus needs to be on recognizing a top when we see it. . . getting out cleanly and confidently. . . [and happily] . . . not worrying if the stock continues to make higher highs. . . and moving small portions of money into safe plays. . .. little by little. . . .over the month of March. . .until by April, we are about three-quarters rotated. When the 2000 market shifts, heads will roll. . . be greedy and stay in too long and one of them could be yours. This is just a wake up call. Rande Is