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Biotech / Medical : Gliatech (GLIA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (1338)	2/12/2000 11:50:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2001

David, >That's up there in 'Harmonian' valuation land... either >sounds good to me... next week? I have a lousy record of timing moves and I try to stay away from that. I reminded you of the next two significant dates that're public knowledge. First the Q4 and annual earnings releases before the market opens on March 1 followed by a conference call at 10am. Second, the SG Cowen Healthcare Conference starting March 5. I do not know if the company has any intention of making any announcements in conjunction with the conference and of course I have no knowledge of what the actual earnings will be for Q4 and the year. It does appear that sales of ADCON-L continued in Europe while the FDA import ban was in effect for the US. If that is not the case, then the Prudential numbers make even less sense than I thought. By the way, I do not know the details of the partnership with Chugai and thus I do not know anything about Japanese sales. What interests me is that the Prudential report appears to consider R-O-W to be Europe and nowhere else. If their numbers are to be believed, then either potential Japanese sales are so small as to be negligible compared to Europe or Gliatech has sold all Japanese rights to Chugai so that they do not even get any royalties. There are a number of things that I find inconsistent in the Prudential report. And some of their language is not at all consistent with the numbers they attach to sales. In their report, they make a statement to the effect that ADCON-L has been extremely popular among surgeons and they seem to say that most surgeons would use it if they could. Then they go on to estimate 2000Q1 sales are less than half of 1999Q1 sales. For Q2 and Q3, they assume that there's going to be no growth in ADCON-L sales (forget the $50K they allow for Q3; that's insignificant). For 2000Q4, they allow less than 15% growth. These numbers are for the US; for Europe, they are even stranger. Given that Gliatech has made progress in addressing the reimbursement issue, this doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. I'd assume they'll make more progress over the next year since they are working on it. They even announced some progress. Moreover, the trend seems to be in the direction of allowing doctor's more say over what does and doesn't get used in an operation. There're lots of other things that I find inconsistent in the report. But please don't take my word for it; read it yourself. If you already have, tell me how statements to the effect that ADCON-L will dominate its market niche and and so forth can be reconciled with lower ADCON-L sales figures for 2000 as opposed to 1999. I really would like to understand that one. The entire expected growth of ADCON sales figures comes from expected sales of ADCON-T/N. I just can't make sense of that. By the way, the reason I said Markovian is that I'm assuming that the future depends solely on the present state and is independent of any past history of the company. I simply do not know enough about the past to want to make statements about it and I have neither the time nor the inclination to spend a week or so catching up on all the discussion that has taken place over the last years. You asked a question and I answered it as best I could since I've received benefit from some of your posts. If you do not agree with any of my conclusions, please either refute them or hit the ``Ignore this person" button. I make no claims to any of Rick Harmon's evaluations although he has been gracious enough to provide a substantial number of links to reports. Regards, Torben