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Biotech / Medical : Gliatech (GLIA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (1341)	2/13/2000 12:59:00 AM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Respond to of 2001

>Adcon-L is not yet approved in Japan. But with Chugai as a partner, it should be. The Japanese system is a lot more predictable than ours. The Prudential report agrees that there's virtually no competition for ADCON-L. They also confirm the size of the market. Yet they assign negative growth to ADCON-L sales for 2000. A recent press release from Gliatech mentions progress on the reimbursement front including agreement with a ``large carrier". As I recall, it does not say who the carrier is which I found strange. The Prudential report has a low number for 1999Q4. I have no problem with that. But I do not see how they derived the 2000 numbers. Prudential mentions the whole pipeline. But they essentially value the company based on ADCON-L and they give it a low multiple at that. The pipeline come for free. They even admit that and yet they don't adjust their target. Ok, I'm stupid and I just don't get it. I can only believe that Prudential is way too conservative in their target and I see no reason why it shouldn't be $50 instead of $25. If ADCON-L sales were to grow by 50% in 2000 - which is still a relatively low penetration figure given that there is no real competition - I could easily justify the higher multiple. It would even be a conservative valuation and it still wouldn't need to assign any value to the non-ADCON pipeline. Torben