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Non-Tech : PPD (Pre-paid Legal Services) on the move -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SC who wrote (760)2/13/2000 4:38:00 PM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 801
 
This past quarter operating cash flow: $4.698 million
Net income this past quarter: $10.426 million

Really, one must think about that. And then think about the market cap at $650 million. And then think about the membership recruiting efficacy - the increase in total members divided by the sum (beginning total members plus new recruitments during the quarter):

Mar-98 .450758598
Jun-98 .472518057
Sep-98 .407795522
Dec-98 .521534624
Mar-99 .38259801
Jun-99 .392183977
Sep-99 .435568751
Dec-99 .460880425

The December Q has been their best quarter historically in terms of this ratio, and in 99 it's down from 98. Over the last two years, they have recruited 1.2 million new members, but the total member count is up only 402 thousand.

Additionally, think about how economically sensitive this business is. Somebody should really grill management about how all those alliances with traditional insurance brokers are working (they aren't - because it can't be sold in the traditional way).

And anyone looking at this stock should realize that the insider buying so often quoted is not really insider buying and that in fact there has been steady insider selling that doesn't hit Yahoo.

This stock isn't easy to figure out. And management intends it that way. If all these things don't give PPD bulls the willies, so be it. I've had my say here.

Mike