Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40135)	2/13/2000 11:22:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

No jerry this time isn't different. The broad market will not be able to rally until we get a fully oversold condition. So far the october 98 and october 99 bottoms haven't been able to do that. To get the fully oversold condition the techs will have to join in the downside party. at that time I will be BULLISH AS HELL, while everybody is screaming end of the world. While everybody is screaming New Economy = New Era, I'm bearish as hell. b

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40135)	2/13/2000 11:41:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ: we have not seen the top in any market yet...not this year anyway... I agree. Not from a PnF perspective cause we can go lower into the teens on the NYSEBP (but like you I doubt that at this point in time). I just don't think we've seen the foreign capital blindly pouring into the market. That would signal the top. My opinion were just in a correction phase of the bull. Remember back in 86 when the Japanese were buying Pebble Beach, Rockerfeller Center, all the Hawaii hotels, etc. and the press were going on and on about the foreigners owning all the good real estate. I haven't seen that yet with stocks. That will be the top. JMO Tim

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40135)	2/13/2000 12:48:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I think that was a teriffic post. Because I believe, as you do, that we are witnessing new technologies being born and new opportunities, I find it really fun to scour the OTC BB markets for incubator opportunities. Granted, some good opportunities in other areas. I see a lot of stocks basing and beginning moves, and do not believe we have a top here. I look at the market as a market of stocks and look for those with positive momentum. Susan

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40135)	2/13/2000 4:14:00 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

OJ, I have a hard time figuring out where all the new economy profits are going to come from, once the new economy infrastructure nears completion. Sure, right now the infrastructure providers for the new economy (Cisco etc.) have a great time. Billions of fresh IPO money, as well as established company money is flowing to them to furiously build infrastructure. But already there are ominous signs of overcapacity in a number of new economy areas. e-tailing is an obvious one. But even things like core networking infrastructure show signs of overcapacity, IMO. I remember a couple of years back everybody was worried that the internet was soon going to collapse because of the meteoric rise in traffic. I don't hear anything about that anymore. Nowadays, everybody seems to be building fiber networks, and a bunch of new companies are preparing to increase the capacity of existing fiber networks by two orders of magnitude relatively cheaply. There are clear signs that PCs have reached saturation. Long distance communications costs are dropping in price precipitously after a long period of stability, and some giant communications companies start feeling the bite. However, the biggest problem that I have with new economy profits is myself. You see, I can't see giving any appreciable amount of my disposable income to these new economy companies in the future, as opposed to spending it on old economy stuff (you know, a bigger house, a better car, a better vacation, eating out, etc.). I certainly can't see giving anything close to 30% of my income to these tech companies -- I understand that their piece of the market cap pie is approaching that. Let me elaborate, and maybe you or somebody else on the thread can come up with examples of new economy products and services that will consume a large portion of our disposable income in the future -- as opposed to making cheaper things we already buy. 1. Commissions I pay to my online broker have dropped drastically, although I trade a lot more. 2. I discontinued subscriptions to a couple of newspapers and a few magazines. I get the same info on the web much quicker and for free. 3. My long distance telephone costs have been cut by 70%, although I talk longer. 4. My travel expenses have dropped considerably, although I travel the same as before -- I book through the web instead of a travel agent. 5. Communications costs to my friends and relatives have dropped down to almost nothing, although I communicate a lot more. I use almost exclusively e-mail, and seems that everybody is falling all over themselves offering me free e-mail accounts. 6. I have ordered online some books and some gadgets. They were considerably cheaper than the local stores. I understand that the e-tailers I ordered from lost considerable money because of my orders, and I wholeheartedly thank them for their gift. Seems to me that the new economy does nothing more than deliver old economy goods a lot more efficiently and cheaply. Once the infrastructure buying spree starts to wane, I see the potential of at least a serious recession if not crippling deflation (ala Japan). How about you? Do you see yourself spending a lot more of your income on new economy stuff? Kyros PS. And please, don't tell me that China and India are gonna save us.