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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40152)	2/13/2000 12:14:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Iam only writing to you since you are the last poster but I also have a lot of questions about P&F even though I use it in a smaller limited form. Has P&F been used in a real bear market or in a hard dropping scenario. In other words, other charting methods I use can stay over sold for extended periods so why can't P&F. As much as I see it hyped like a religion at times, I have been in trouble with this crowd before. I have observed many times that their first rally calls are often false and I always wait for the second one since they were early on the last two correction bottoms. I recall them buying in September when the real bottoms were in October the last couple years. More recently, they were on a sell at the most recent bottom and then they went bull confirmed at the most recent top on thier short term indicators. I am just wondering if their short term indicators are getting whipsawed, then can the longer term NYSEBP get whipsawed too or could it stay at a low reading for an extended period kind of like how stochastics or Chandes momentum oscillators can stay maxed out for extended periods in extremes. Since the last couple years seem to have had this happen, why not again? Always looking to learn. It just seems to me that if we have a strong down market where everything gets over sold, that since bullish rallies within a bear market can be intense before collapsing again, that it would swing the NYSEBP back to buy signals since most stocks would be bouncing, albeit dead cat bounces, then the next downleg would resume. Since P&F is lagging by nature, it would then get you in near the top just as the rug was being pulled out again. As I said, I use P&F and 3 line as confirmation on my "normal" candle charts but I also keep in mind that they move slower and know to ignore them when my regular charts show a probable topping point. Good Luck, Lee

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (40152)	2/13/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 99985

Your right Mike.. we both trade our respective charts..forget the rhetoric.. and no, currently, we are not in any bear market on any index...we are correcting the excesses is all.... when the NYA bottoms at say 575 "IF" it gets there, we would wait for a reversal up, to signal a new trend...this would equate to "BULL ALERT" status... so we are no where near a bull market in the NYA, just the opposite...we don;t catagorize bull/bear markets as such... and i agree..we both have this bias underlying our trading...but i fight this urge because i'm a Taurus anyway<GGGG>...