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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (7947)	2/13/2000 8:00:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Respond to of 9256

Stitch, But here is my problem. I'm focused on looking at what the major forces will be on the independent component suppliers, KMAG, RDRT, HMTT, HTCH, etc. To do that you have to forecast not only unit drive shipments but also the average component contents of those units and that latter variable has become rather dominant. For example, lets take the 10-20gb numbers 77 million units in 2000, 58 million in 2001. The question is how many heads and platters will these units consume? In drives shipping now I might expect this particular bracket to be running around an average of 1.6 platters per drive unit on its way to approaching 1 as a limit....but when do we get there? I've been lead to approach it this way because desktop consumes 75% of the units shipped and a very high percentage of these are single drive computers and there are inexorable forces pushing these towards becoming single platter computers. Once we actually get there the component suppliers will wake up to a brighter dawn, but it still looks to be a ways down the road (to me anyway). If I believe these numbers (1.6 approaching 1) and consider HMTT and KMAG I've almost got to believe one of them just has to go this year. Similarly for RDRT although its tougher to figure who is who in the head industry with so many "private" operations. But I don't know that I believe the numbers. 1999 unit drive shipments were supposed to be around 170 million units. But HTCH alone has been shipping a steady 140 million suspensions per quarter and they probably have something a bit less than 60% market share of unit volume. This arithmetic gives you 5.5 suspensions per drive ....about 2.7 platters/drive for the period. That is even farther from 1. The way I figure it this floundering goes on until we get to a 1 platter drive desktop norm or GMR runs into unexpected practical problems pushing ariel density further (and I see no signs of that). Anyone have a more constructive way of looking at it? Best Regards......Tom