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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. M. Blackburn who wrote (11925)	2/14/2000 11:34:00 PM
From: Rock Fish	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

>You have been around long enough to know that a new bunch >will move in and start all over again, or the "old" >bashers will ignore a successful call and find something >else wrong to gripe about. Maybe he will miss the bottom >by a 1/2% or something. From what I've been able to tell (Bob keeps repeating a variation of this theme to about every 3rd caller), Bob is not predicting a "bottom". He keeps saying that his model indicates a maximum upside of +5% this year. At the same time, his model is telling him that the downside is -20%, and possibly worse. With this range, and his 60,40 position I only see one scenario for criticism. This scenario relates to how he handles the cash position. If we see his +5% scenario play out and go on to subsequent highs beyond this, his followers could be stuck with a large cash position for a new buying opportunity, or DCAing above the current levels. He keeps talking about a hypothetical "re-entry point" which may or may not ever dip below our previous January highs. Then again, the whole goal of this strategy is to lower the risk while accepting the scenario of lower than average market returns of a fully invested position. -- Rock Fish