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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott C. Lemon who wrote (6414)	2/14/2000 7:46:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

Hi Scott, "now I just have to catch up on Frank's thread" Frank's thread is in many ways an extension or annex to this LMT. And yes, your participation there would be most welcome to say the least. As for the topic at hand --wireless internet speeds-- I'd like to respond to RTS's question: "How fast is fast in the world of wireless internet?" IMO, as wireless services begin to proliferate I think that we will see the same general rules of network contention applying in wireless as exist for cable modem (CM) and digital subscriber line (DSL). That is, the specified line rates will not be the sole determining factors in what the sustainable download and upload speeds will be. In most of the residential wireless systems which are being touted today as next gen we'll still have contention issues just as we do with CM and DSL. Perhaps more so, if the popularity of wireless is as high as many predict. So, the 11 Mb/s 802.11 speeds (which are only a third that of cablemodem for starters, and less than proposed VDSL and IEEE rates of the future over fiber, such as GbE), might only yield 500 kb/s to 1+Mb/s during average utilization periods. Somewhat lower speeds will result during peak periods. And the same links may yield much higher speeds (approaching the rated speeds) during periods when there is lighter or insignificant network loading. In the commercial wireless broadband delivery sector, the same will apply to P-MP, or point to multipoint, services which are capable of 155 or 300+ Mb/s speeds in most schemes which I have seen which use ATM-like traffic management schemes. This, too, is a contention based scheme subject to statistical formulae which must be sized properly by the carrier/service provider in order to ensure that negotiated service levels can be supported. When overloaded, these can also result in very low speeds, again like most cm and dsl applications. Sustained wireless speeds of T1 (1.5 Mb/s), T3 (45 Mb/s), OC3 (155 Mb/s) and higher can be obtained, however, if the user elects to lease a fixed-rate wireless service from one of the last mile broadband wireless providers. While these are more expensive and less efficient, arguably, than p-mp... they are at the same time more secure, more deterministic and more reliable, overall. For the average consumer, I still hesitate at this time to characterize what download and upload speeds will be. There is a tremendous amount of buzz surrounding third gen wireless and some satellite based delivery schemes right now. Just as there was for analog-line modem services 60 years ago, Digital Data Services (DDS) 25 years ago, ISDN about twelve years ago, dsl units five to eight years ago, and DOCSIS cable modems two to three years ago. Notice the declining dynasty periods of each of these WAN protocols. In the end, the "rated speeds" on any of these applications is merely a license to contend for up to that speed, but actual performance will always be less, and will always be a function of other variables both in terms of end user and target site contention levels, and just as importantly, the dynamics of the shared cloud. Comments & corrections always welcome. Regards, Frank Coluccio