To: James Fulop who wrote (7993 ) 2/14/2000 9:51:00 AM From: Rustam Tahir Respond to of 12623
MSDW on CIEN: We have initiated coverage of Ciena with an Outperform and a target of $100, or 13 times our estimate of C2001 revenues. - We View CIENA As A Leading Optical Networking Co. Ciena has regenerated itself from being a vendor of bandwidth-increasing dwdm transport equipment to being a proponent of intelligent optical networking. -CIENA's stock is attractive, we believe. Given the company's market share and broad product line, we would be buyers of the stock. Summary and Investment Conclusion: - We have called this report "Optical Regeneration in Progress" because we believe that CIENA has transformed itself from a provider of dumb bandwidth-increasing transport products to a leading proponent of intelligent optical networking. CIENA was an early leader in dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM), the technology of choice for increasing bandwidth in optical networks. Today, CIENA has an ambitious vision of true optical networking and the products to match, in our view. We believe that Ciena's stock price represents the company's history more than its future potential. - Ciena's products include cutting-edge DWDM transport equipment (CoreStream), an optical switch for the core of the network (CoreDirector), an aggregation and transport device for the edge of the network (EdgeDirector), and metro DWDM transport equipment (MultiWave Metro). We are particularly enthusiastic about CoreDirector, which should be in trials with 5 or 6 service providers over the next few months. - CIENA has a strong foothold in the optical networking market, in our view. It share of the open DWDM transport equipment market is second only to Lucent (LU, $58, Strong Buy, $85 target) (and we believe its share should increase over the next two quarters). It is the leader in metro DWDM in terms of trials and commercial deployments. It is one of only two vendors with an optical switch in serious trials with major service operators, we believe. (The other is Sycamore Networks (SCMR, $299, Outperform, A little late to the party and a little low, in my opinion. But that's MSDW, overly conservative for the most part. Besides waiting for things to happen before making their calls, they often pull back on misplaced anxieties.