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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (60241)	2/14/2000 11:08:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

DeepwaterExSarge; re: Deepwater indicators... Sarge, errr Deep: TDW is a boat company Sarge, their business is NOT exclusively leveraged, or specialized in "Deepwater" - hence they are far, far from a valuable, or even usefull indicator of "deepwater" - or the potential demand for FGH's products. - here we are speaking about FGH's acknowledged core business - Rig Construction. ... I reiterate my point of FGH being on public record for exploring asset divestitures in the shipbuilding side. There have been MANY comments that they may exit the shipbuilding business entirely ? I think one needs to wait to see what level, if any; that the new FGH remains in shipbuilding. But - as far as an indicator of what it takes to create demand for FGH's rig construction; Sarge, this is so fundamentally simplistic that I feel embarrassed for you that you STILL - simply DO NOT GET IT !?!?! 1. Rig utilization 2. Day Rates 3. Cap Ex spending by the "MAJORS" PS - on the "CAP EX subject; mere increases on a % basis are meaninless - this simple FACT has escaped many FGH investors. If the majors are publically on record with analysts on what specifically they are going to spend their cap ex $ on - and those expenditures do NOT include any new significant offshore Rig construction projects; - what don't you guys understand ? - they will spend their money on the idle, or cheap dayrate Rigs that are readilly available here as they rollover and become available. There is no reason for any signicant newbuilds in this year environment going perhaps at the minimum 18 mos out. A. Utilization must reach near full capacity; as it did prior to the previous newbuild cycle; to pressure dayrates to levels economically supportive of newbuilds. For a "quickie" indicator - just see FLC's 33+ stacked offshore drilling rigs. Sarge, most of these will not only need to be back to work; but will need to be working at historically very profitable dayrates; before the Drillers look for any aggressive new construction commitments. ie: FLC will be $25+ (probably $35+) before the financial & economic environment exists to support ANY significant newbuild environment. - hence my comments on watching laggard shareprices of DO & FLC (actually their utilization % & dayrates) as early indicators for when FGH may start getting some contracts for new Rig Construction on a steady basis. The present environment is hit & miss - an single contract here & there Sarge and a few drillers built their own Rigs here. FGH may allegedly be the "yard of choice" - but there is significant competition. If you want to invest in FGH on the basis of the shipbuilding Sector - good luck. Look to TMAR GMRK TDW HMAR and the dayrates & utilization of the Ship Sector - worse than Offshore Rigs... Bottomline: FGH is CHEAP !!!!!! hello Sarge- the whole freeking world knows FGH is cheap !- but guess what ?!?!? - it has basically THE LOWEST INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP AND THE HIGHEST SHORT INTEREST of not just any peer company in its sector, but virtually the entire Oilpatch ?!!?!?! ... and you wonder why ? Sarge; it's because there is no reason to own FGH here - yet; they, like me; will be watch NOT TDW ! - but, the FLC's & DO's of the "real" Deepwater World ! Sarge; I know you will STILL not "get it" after reading this; primarilly because you are "wired" wrong - and your emotions keep your brain from accepting comflicting data; so just go back to your Kevin Costneresque WaterWorldFantasyLand - where FGH is worth $40 per share and the shorts are boiler room cretin manipulators and JL Holloway is a prince of a man...and YOU are the ONLY one who really understand the FGH story... Sarge; by the way; there is a new movie coming out based on the true life story of an infamous present day online trader; coming out late February with Ben Afleck staring: BOILER ROOM is the title.... you need to see it; maybe there is even a Sargesque character ??? This ougght to satiate (or stimulate) your conspiratorial thirst... >>>>>>VBG<<<<<<<<