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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce L who wrote (60268)	2/14/2000 2:37:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

OXY fwiw... Bruce; Fadel Gheit - who does an excellent job on major Oils & Integrateds - loves OXY... I have not seen his reaction to this purchase however. P UCL MRO are dirt cheap here as well. - add "think big - move fast " - COC to that list as well (COC a, b). Yes; the Street did not react well to OXY's purchase, but they must have really liked the asset - knowing the reaction they would get - which they did; so this is allmost a contrarian - BUY indicator for me. - ie: knowing that OXY "knew" they would get hit by the Street for making the acquisition - they still did it and they must really like it. Bottomline; whatever the speculators do to Oil "if-when" OPEC eases; we have reached supply levels to where $20+ looks reasonable & possible for 24+ mos. OXY is now near its 5 year low of $14 5/8 - call it $15ish. Gheit has OXY has a possible takeout candidate as well. 6% yield - is the "butter"... Conservative play - I would average in to where you can add if $15ish is hit. They just added 1/3 to their production with this acquisition and are now back to shareprice levels where the recovery started with $16 Oil ? - go figure... I think OXY see's $24-26 this year for a 40-50% pop. I am building a 20-25%ish position in Integrateds - super Independants & maybe a major, or two - simply too high of upside % and too low risk; not to look at easing into a margin leveraged position in these as they retrace here; but I would average in steadily. I like: 20-25% in LG cap Independants, Intergrated, Majors 50% E&P pureplays 25-30% driller/service I still like overweighting to the E&P's for sheer valuations - especially the upside to merely their past highs of this Septermber; and their fundamentals & earning visibility going forward vs. OSX stocks. I like the Biggies's here for safety in building a margined position, with lower risk. I will start building a margin position in these stocks first. Many of these companies ran 50% in the 6-8 weeks post Opec metting rally last year.Their performance was not unlike the OSX itself. OXY ran from 15-20 in less than a month in the March - April move, P ran from $37 to $50 in 7 weeks - now back to $37 here today ! UCL ran from $28 to $45 in last years spring rally - anyone else feel safer margining the major players vs. the smaller caps ? OXY P UCL etc have a higher % upside to their highs than many OSX names & are completely retraced virtually back to their prices at the start of the 1999 Rally with $16-$18 Oil... Do you want to margin these - or, SII CAM BJS here ? - (if you plan on margining that is... not encouraging its use - just talking about the safety of this vs. the upside potential to prior highs).