India in 100 years
Warped minds with twisted logic may fry & sizzle like an egg on a hot greased pan, when they read this. U R warned well in advance.
rediff.com
Yes, there is hope, and that is what I base my optimistic perspectives on.-read on
excerpts
secessionist movements in various parts of India cease to be attractive to the public. Similarly, caste-based agitations and animosities grow less important, as there is a larger pie for people to share.
-- the northeast and Kashmir will recognize that they are better off within India than without.
The rediff columnist's ten predictions for the next 100 years
To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, I can predict anything but the future!
Nevertheless, as someone who has consistently believed that India's
future is certainly brighter than her disgraceful present, I shall take a stab
at what I think the next one hundred years have in store. In passing, let us
note that, despite the obvious shortfalls, we have come a long way,
indeed -- it would have taken a very brave prognosticator indeed in 1899
to predict anything other than slavery for India in 1999.
India's ills are primarily self-imposed -- derived from poor strategic
thinking, lack of self-confidence, and a tendency towards fratricide. Alas,
these trends continue apace today. Fortunately, there are several
worldwide trends -- towards heterogeneity, towards globalization,
towards abstraction -- which should help India.
India has managed a remarkably diverse set of people for millennia --
racially, culturally, linguistically, and in every other way we have vast
differences -- and this is something the globally capable industry of
tomorrow needs: the ability to work with differences. Homogeneous
cultures that do not allow for pluralism -- for instance the
Semitic-religion-dominated West or Han-dominated China -- are
ill-equipped to deal with an increasingly heterogeneous marketplace. With
its tolerant Indic heritage that accepts (and even revels in) differences -- e
pluribus unum as the Americans say, or bhinnaka tungalika as per the
Indonesians -- India is well equipped culturally for the new Pacific
century.
Similarly, India's strength all along has been in abstract thought, in ideas.
Perhaps it is true, as Gurcharan Das, management guru, suggests, that
India lost out on the Industrial Revolution because we do not have a
culture of tinkering; he believes, however, that as the currency of the
future becomes ideas, India has a competitive advantage. Of course,
India has produced some of the greatest ideas in history -- the zero,
Buddhism, and non-violence.
Sociologist Joel Kotkin once suggested that the 'oil' of the next century is
engineering. Just as the possession of petroleum enabled West Asia,
hitherto a wasteland, to prosper, the skills in engineering, and more
generally, in intellectual property, that India appears to have, should be a
major competitive advantage.
At the root of India's problems is. A remarkably productive and entrepreneurial
populace -- one that, a mere four hundred years ago, owned 25 per
cent of the world's manufacture of goods -- has become a
basket-case, accounting today for only 0.5 per cent of world trade. This hollowing out of the Indian
economy primarily thanks to the British, but also thanks to the hubris of
India's central planners, is to be blamed for the continuing suffering of 1
billion people. This can and will be turned around.
And from economic strength will flow another major benefit -- that of
self-confidence. As the East Asians have demonstrated, with money
comes respect, and self-respect, and a desire to preserve and utilize the
positives in its own culture. A resurgent India that is gaining prosperity will
also automatically make the current fissiparous tendencies go away -- the
northeast and Kashmir will recognize that they are better off within India
than without.
Yes, there is hope, and that is what I base my optimistic perspectives on.
1. In certain sunrise service industries, India becomes a world leader by
2050, one of the top three producers of:
ú Intellectual property, especially in information technology, but also in
areas like pharmaceuticals.
ú High-value-added services, such as medical services,
entertainment-related services.
ú Low-value-added services, such as in IT-enabled services like call
centers, medical transcription.
ú Advertising, video, media and related services.
2. In certain manufacturing areas, India is already or becomes a world
leader by 2020, as one of the two three producers of:
ú Agricultural products, including processed fruits and vegetables, milk
products, marine products.
ú Leather goods.
ú Gemstones and jewelry
3. The Indian economy reaches take-off stage as soon as 2005, with a
consistent and real growth rate of 8 to 9 per cent in GDP per year. In
twenty years, this will mean that per-capita incomes quadruple from
about $ 300 to about $ 1,200 in current dollars. Abject poverty will
disappear except in pockets.
4. As a direct corollary of number 3, secessionist movements in various
parts of India cease to be attractive to the public. Similarly, caste-based
agitations and animosities grow less important, as there is a larger pie for
people to share.
5. Again as a corollary of number 3, the net population growth rate falls
much faster than anticipated, and India reaches a stable, self-sustaining
population of 1.2 billion by 2020. Even in the Gangetic plains states, Zero
Population Growth becomes a reality. There is a side-benefit: India has a
much larger percentage of productive people in their youth as compared
to the ageing populations of the OECD nations. Furthermore, epidemics,
including AIDS, cease to ravage the countryside because of improved
prevention and primary health care.
6. Indian culture and literature gain rightful acceptance as one of the
world's greatest traditions. At least three Indians will win the Nobel Prize
in Literature by 2050. The number of universities offering programs in
Indic studies goes up by a factor of ten. Sanskrit, Pali and Tamil on the
classical side, and modern Indian languages on the other side, are taken
up with interest by both Indians and foreigners.
7. With great national pride, India
hosts the Olympics before 2050.
Japan, Korea and others announced
their arrival on the world scene by
successfully holding the Olympics in
their nations; similarly India will, too.
8. Indian cuisine becomes
recognized as one of the world's greatest and most popular. Just as
'curry' has become Britain's national dish, and Thai restaurants have
stormed the US, Indian restaurants -- including those offering the varied
and innovative regional cuisines (eg. Hyderabadi, Malabar, Chettinad,
Lucknowi, Kashmiri, Bengali) -- become fixtures worldwide.
9. The regional groupings -- SAARC, the Indian Ocean Rim group, the
India-Bangladesh-Thailand-Burma group, etc. -- become major trading
organizations, and also become strategic partners in military alliances
aimed at keeping at bay the Chinese, the Americans and others with
ambitions. India also acquires blue-water strike capabilities as well as
ICBMs by 2040.
10. The transportation and telecom infrastructure in India improves
beyond recognition, as new highways and airports are built and telecom is
thrown fully open to competition. By 2050, there are 10,000 new miles
of limited-access toll-roads, 20 containerized and computerized ports,
and the major airports have been upgraded to international class facilities.
In a fit of wild optimism, I also predict that the Indian predilection for
driving like maniacs diminishes, so that Indian roads are no longer exciting
demolition derbies!
Illustrations: Dominic Xavier
Rajeev Srinivasan is a computer industry entrepreneur and a
columnist for rediff.com |
