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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (40291)	2/14/2000 6:48:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, trimtabs estimates a 40 billion dollar liquidity shortfall for 2000. that doesn't mean we have to crash...first of all these estimates may change, and secondly, if they are correct, a slow grind down is also a possible outcome. i notice you're concentrating on very few stocks - perhaps you should broaden your horizon? btw, i still see quite a few bullish chart patterns in the stocks i follow, and if they are to play out, the market should exhibit some more strength into expiration. note however the number of big cap stocks making fresh highs is diminishing ever more...the deterioration is getting worse, and the speculation has moved toward small cap and BB stocks. that's one of the reasons i believe we're getting closer to some kind of shake-out. regards, hb

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (40291)	2/14/2000 9:19:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>showing a big siphoning of the money<< I have been seeing the exact opposite. Everyone was originally expecting the liquidity to dry up by 6 Feb due to teh pre Y2K repos all coming due but they have been pumping it in at the same rate the whole year so far ( 6-8 billion per day) There were a few days where they only pumped in 4 billion and those were the big down days. I read this morning that there were 15 billion in repos done during the weekend for today and the market still couldn't hold up too well. Now I will say that in the discussion so far, while the charts do look like things could get ugly, the OEX max Pain point is about 25 points above where we are now so they will try like heck to get it up before the week is over. of course with AG talking Thursday, the PPI and CPI, I am not sure how hard they will try. They already made a bunch in premium erosion so why spend the profits trying to save the last dollar if AG might say something to tank it anyway. My best guess and I repeat GUESS, is if AG doesn't say anything earth shattering, they will use that as an excuse to rally hard late in the week. I am posting blind as I haven't done my charts yet. Went and got all my LAN cards, hub and cables to network my house. Don't get a digital camera! -ggg- The wife filled up the hard drive in a month that I never got past half full in 2 years. Now I have to network all my computers so we can share teh CD burner, printers etc and then get her another hard drive. This photo hobby is getting expensive -ggg- Good Luck, Lee

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (40291)	2/15/2000 12:56:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi dennis .. OK you said the "L" word .. soooo .. I've been watchin' that "L" stuff for a couple of years (at least) now .. Here's what things look like to me. Last week we had a feeding frenzy .. but all of the feeders seemed to be little folks. 401k, IRA .. that kind of thing. The frenzy has gotten to the point that the little guy is selling value kind of stuff to buy the fluff kind of stuff. Their funds have now been successfully funneled into just a few fluff kind of stocks that can be used for "fall guys" While everybody has been watching the NAZ go through the roof, the DJIA has fallen 1300 points. Granted, a small part of that has been regained during the last couple of days. Now then, you have to remember something. The market makers over there on the NAZ had their hold requirement lowered a while back. Where they used to be required to hold 1000 shares of a stock that they made market in, that was lowered to only 100. When that took place it became very easy to make the market gap up on opens. So then .. when it gaps up who gets the gain? There is no "other side" that receives the gain. Nobody has spent the amount of money equil to the increase in market cap. To me this represents a portion of the air pocket that is being called a bubble. Because it is an "air pocket", it fills most of the time. The reason that it fills is because to sell the stock at this higher price, the market makers had to short it to the buyer. When they do, they have a need to lead the stock down to cover and receive their gains. Once it has done this the market can then move forward. Anyway .. the biggest problem with all of this is that small hold requirement. The reason that this is such a large problem, is that once the trap has been sprung the NAZ can (and I believe will) fall much faster and further than the DJIA ever could. So then .. the little guy has come to believe that any stock that has real earnings and a low PE should be sold. Next they have been convinced to put their "bet" within a market that has been structured to fall fast. In addition, they have been convinced to place themselves at the markets mercy by using vast amounts of margin. At the same time this has been going on, large blocks of stock have been sold off, masked by the "gap" method I mentioned above. The fruit seems to be ripe on the vine. Now the media has become involved .. teaching everybody that the DJIA doesn't matter any more. What's more, everybody has become more and more used to 2, 3, even 5% dips in the market per day... "NAZ down 100 points? .. no big deal .." Seems to me that the frog is about to be cooked. Couple of hundred NAZ points and all of those billions of margin and retirement money will be gone. FWIW