Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (18004)	2/15/2000 3:39:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Rambus Stan, I wouldn't be so positive about the fact that RMBS has crossed the chasm. Or maybe it has but the landscape on the far side of the chasm is very narrow pinnacle. As I posted a while back, virtually every major Memory Manufacturer plus Intel have formed a new consortium to define the next generation memory. Rambus was not invited to play. Intel has finally gotten the message (and probably learned from its previous mistake)that these guys did not like having Rambus shoved down their throats. It, of course, remains to be seen how Rambus fairs with their lawsuit and whether the other memory structures violate RMBS patents. There will also be some time lag (years likely) between forming the consortium, define the memory architecture and implementing it. This should give RMBS some time to grow into its current valuation. I want to say that I've placed short term investment into RMBS after it tanked last fall and sold a few months later for a 50% gain( a pure gamble that paid off, it could have gone the other way as well). I wish all RMBS investors the best of fortunes, but I really question the long term value of their stock. When I modelled their valuation last fall the stock was at roughly the same price. At that point when I assumed that RMBS would capture 100% market share within five years, the best increase I could see in the capitalization was a double. Nothing has changed in the environment to cause me to alter that opinion. Although a double in say 5 years isn't horrible, the fact that that required taking over the entire world 100% and now that the entire customer base and the biggest supporter are trying to shift away, the risk-reward balance doesn't seem too good to me. If they tank again into the fifties, well even I might be tempted again. I do think they will post consistently better results for the next several quarters, but I'm not convinced that the current price is justified for the long term. FATBOY